SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
I’m laying the points with Virginia in Tallahassee. The numbers make the Cavaliers about a six-point better team on the road, the board only asks two and a half, and Virginia’s pass defense is built to take away the one thing Florida State does well. That’s a half play.
The Matchup
- Virginia is 3-1 and has been hard to throw on. The Cavaliers beat NC State 34-8, Norfolk State 59-3 and Delaware 42-3, with a 38-27 loss to West Virginia in between. They’re allowing 130.3 passing yards a game, fifth in the country, and they’re plus-five in turnovers.
- Beau Pribula has been efficient. Virginia’s quarterback is completing 76.7 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception.
- Florida State is 2-2 and can’t stop the pass. The Seminoles beat New Mexico State and Central Arkansas, lost 27-24 to SMU, and blew a 15-point lead in a 50-36 loss at Alabama. They’re giving up 290 passing yards a game, 135th in the country. Ashton Daniels has thrown six touchdowns and five interceptions, and Ousmane Kromah has 397 rushing yards and five scores.
- Both teams have holes. Virginia lost starting defensive tackle Jason Hammond to elbow surgery. For Florida State, running back Samuel Singleton Jr. and linebacker Blake Nichelson are unlikely to play, and Mike Norvell is coaching under a lot of heat. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on ESPN2 at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 4, have Virginia almost nine points better than Florida State. Give the Seminoles two and a half for playing at home and that’s Virginia by 6.2. The board has Virginia by two and a half. That’s 3.7 points on the Cavaliers, a real disagreement and still under our four-point warning line.
The line hasn’t run away from us. It opened as low as Virginia minus a point and a half, and it’s two and a half now. That’s the market leaning the same way we are, just not as far.
Here’s why it’s a half play and not more. This series has been strange: the underdog has covered the last four meetings, and Virginia won last year in double overtime as a seven-point dog. Florida State also played SMU to three and led Alabama for most of a half, so there’s more talent there than 2-2 suggests. But the matchup is the tiebreaker. Florida State can’t defend the pass, and Virginia’s quarterback has thrown one pick all year. Virginia minus two and a half, half play, confidence three.
In-Game Bets
- If Florida State scores first on a long run. Look at Virginia on the live number. Kromah is the Seminoles’ best player, and one big play doesn’t change who throws it better.
- If Pribula throws two interceptions in the first half. Leave it. The case rests on Virginia protecting the ball, and two picks means that’s not happening.
- If Virginia leads by 10 at halftime. Do nothing. Florida State blew a 15-point lead at Alabama, but it also built one. You already have the ticket.
Bottom Line
Take Virginia minus two and a half at . Half play ($12.50). The numbers make Virginia about a six-point better team even on the road, the board asks two and a half, and the line has drifted our way. The best pass defense in this game belongs to Virginia and the worst belongs to Florida State. The series history is the risk, so it’s confidence three.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Daily Slate
Sign up for daily picks.
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.