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I’ll take Missouri and the points at home against unbeaten Florida. The numbers have this as a field-goal game, the board has it as nearly a touchdown, and I’ll take five and a half with the home team. But the line hasn’t moved our way, so it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Florida’s offense is flying. The Gators are 4-0 and No. 8, scoring 53.5 points a game, second in the country. They beat FAU 66-21 and Campbell 52-3, won 44-39 at Auburn, and beat Ole Miss 52-28 last week. Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.
- Florida’s defense is the question. The Gators gave up 39 at Auburn, and by per-play numbers their defense ranks outside the top 100. Receiver Vernell Brown III is questionable with a knee sprain, and Bailey Stockton is limited with a back injury.
- Missouri stops the run. The Tigers are 3-1 and No. 25, and they’re allowing 2.77 yards a carry. Austin Simmons has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. The loss was 31-24 at Mississippi State last week.
- Missouri’s pass rush is banged up. Starting defensive ends Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen are both questionable and have to practice by Thursday to play. That matters more than anything else on the injury report. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on ABC at Faurot Field.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 4, have Florida about five points better than Missouri on a neutral field. Give Missouri two and a half for playing at home and that’s Florida by 2.3. The board has Florida by five and a half at some shops and four and a half at others. At five and a half, that’s 3.2 points on Missouri, under our four-point warning line.
The problem is the line. Depending on where you look, it opened at Florida minus two and a half, right where our number is, or at five and a half. Either way, it hasn’t come toward Missouri, and at some shops it’s gone three points the other way. Nobody has reported a reason, but Missouri did lose both starting defensive ends in the last two weeks. When the market is moving away from us or refusing to budge, I don’t stake it.
So it’s a lean. The numbers still say this is closer than the board does, Missouri at home stops the run better than almost anyone, and five and a half is a lot to lay with a defense that gave up 39 to Auburn. If Smith and Kitchen both practice Thursday, I’d like it more. Missouri plus five and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If both Missouri defensive ends are active. The case gets better. If you haven’t bet it yet and the number is still five or more, it’s a better ticket than it was Wednesday.
- If Baugh has 60 rushing yards in the first quarter. Leave it. Missouri’s run defense is the whole argument, and that means it isn’t holding.
- If Missouri is within three at halftime. Look at the Missouri moneyline on the live number. This is the same Florida defense that gave up 39 at Auburn.
Bottom Line
Take Missouri plus five and a half at . Lean. The numbers make Florida about a field-goal favorite, and the board asks five and a half. But the line hasn’t come our way, and Missouri’s two starting defensive ends are questionable. I like the Tigers at home, but I’m not staking it.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both posted at the book on the card. If Missouri covers at home, it’s most likely in a slower game where its defense holds Florida well under its 53-a-game average. Missouri’s games have stayed under this number in two of its last three. Both legs need the same afternoon, so this is one position, not two bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleMissouri covers by slowing Florida down and keeping the game under 56.5.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 1:38 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket.
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