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Take the Points. Denver Isn't Done.

NBA · MONDAY NIGHT · MON NOV 9 · 8:30 PM ET · Houston · FINAL DEN 100, HOU 110
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Our edge: The number fell four points today and I still want it. Nuggets keep it close.

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Nuggets +4.5n/an/a

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01 · POINT SPREADOUR PICK

Nuggets +4.5

Our number: HOU −3 · Line: HOU −4.5

Nuggets +4.5. Houston wins by three.

The number moved. The read didn't.

Denver has won two straight, 128-109 over Toronto and 114-102 in Indiana. The Nuggets score 115.3 a game and shoot 49% from the field. Houston has dropped two in a row. This line was 8.5 this morning and it’s 4.5 now, because Denver’s stars look ready to go. You can’t get the big number anymore, but I’ve got Houston by three, and that still works.

Nuggets115.3
Rockets107.0
Denver offense: 115.3 Points per game. Houston defense: 107.0 Points allowed per game. 2026-27 season, through Nov 8

Houston's big men are in the training room

Clint Capela and Steven Adams are both out. That leaves Alperen Sengun to deal with Jokic all night. Sengun is great, 21.5 points and 8.8 boards a night, but he can’t guard the best player on the planet alone.

Jokic and Murray carry this thing

Jamal Murray is scoring 24.2 a game. Jokic is at 10.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists. With those two on the floor, Houston has to earn every bucket. Give me the points.

How this blows up on me

What scares me: tired legs and banged-up stars. Denver had a rough trip getting to Houston, and Jokic (elbow) and Murray (shin) are both playing through something. They’re expected to go, but check before tip. If either one sits, 4.5 points won’t save us.

Mile High basketball. Go Nuggets.

WHO YOU GOT?

Do the Nuggets keep it within 4.5 in Houston?

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