Fourteen games Saturday, starting with a matinee in Raleigh. The spot I like most is St. Louis, where the Blues are plus money at home against a Florida team still missing Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand. Dallas and Columbus are next in line, and I’ve got a side in every game but one. The Avs in Montreal are a pass now that MacKinnon and Makar are out.
Every main pick here lands on the receipts page win or lose. Parlays aren’t tracked there.
Kraken at Hurricanes, 1:00 PM ET, NHL Network
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The smallest edge on the card, and a big price. Carolina is 15-3-2, scores about four goals a game and allows only 22 shots a night. The Canes already beat Seattle 4-1 this season. But at +245 the price says Carolina wins almost three of every four, and our numbers think the Kraken are a hair better than that. Joey Daccord and Pyotr Kochetkov are confirmed in net. Small money on the Kraken.
Jets at Blackhawks, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+
I know. Chicago is 5-13-1 and its power play scores on 11.1% of its chances. Winnipeg has won five straight, and Kyle Connor has 16 goals. But the Hawks have won half their home games, and the Jets give up about three and a half goals a night and kill only 74.6% of penalties. Spencer Knight and Stuart Skinner are the expected starters. Hawks at plus money.
Wild at Bruins, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Boston has won eight of ten at home, and David Pastrnak has 24 points. Minnesota has been great on the road, winning nine of 14, and Kirill Kaprizov has 17 goals and 35 points. The Wild are without Brock Faber, and Joel Eriksson Ek is day-to-day. Jeremy Swayman and Jesper Wallstedt are confirmed in net. Even money on a team this good at home. Bruins.
Oilers at Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET, NHL Network
Yes, Toronto has lost five straight. And yes, Connor McDavid has 49 points and Edmonton’s power play scores on a third of its chances. But Frederik Andersen is on injured reserve, so Devon Levi is expected in the Oilers’ net, and that’s what moves our number. Toronto kills 85.5% of penalties, and Auston Matthews has 29 points. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day. Anthony Stolarz is confirmed for the Leafs. Plus money. Leafs.
Avalanche at Canadiens, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+ and Altitude 2
Update: No pick here anymore. The Avalanche ruled out Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on Saturday morning, and Jared Bednar said MacKinnon will miss about a month and Makar about two weeks. Our number for this game was built with both of them in the lineup, so the edge is gone and we’re passing. Mackenzie Blackwood and Jakub Dobes are confirmed in net. Go Avs anyway.
Red Wings at Lightning, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Tampa has won all eight of its home games. Detroit has lost five straight and kills only 70.5% of penalties. Dylan Larkin is still out. Nikita Kucherov has 28 points and Brandon Hagel has 13 goals. Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak are day-to-day for Tampa. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Daniil Tarasov are the likely starters. Our numbers have the Bolts near 73%. Bolts.
Senators at Penguins, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Ottawa has spent 243 minutes in the penalty box, and its own power play scores on only 11.8% of its chances. Erik Karlsson has 19 points for Pittsburgh, which is missing Bryan Rust. Tim Stutzle has 24 points for the Senators. Sergei Murashov and Linus Ullmark are confirmed in net. Close to a coin flip at an even price. Pens.
Devils at Capitals, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
New Jersey just beat Washington 5-2, and Jack Hughes has 27 points. But the Devils kill only 65.1% of penalties, and the Caps have won seven of 11 at home. Alex Tuch has 11 goals. Charlie Lindgren and Connor Hellebuyck are confirmed in net. Thin edge at plus money. Caps.
Flyers at Blue Jackets, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Philadelphia scores about two and a quarter goals a game and has won two of 11 on the road. Columbus has dropped three straight, but it’s won six of 11 at home and hung seven on Colorado there recently. Kent Johnson has 17 points. Sean Monahan is day-to-day for the Jackets. Jet Greaves and Joseph Woll are confirmed in net, and Greaves is a big reason our numbers have Columbus near 65%. Jackets.
Panthers at Blues, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
The biggest gap on the board. Florida is without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, and it has 315 penalty minutes, the kind of number that keeps a team shorthanded all night. St. Louis has won five of eight at home and kills 86% of penalties. Joel Hofer and Jacob Markstrom are confirmed in net. Our numbers have the Blues near 60%, and we’re getting plus money. Full breakdown here. Blues.
Sabres at Stars, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Dallas allows only about 23 shots a game and kills 88.5% of penalties. Buffalo kills just 69.7% of its own and has lost four of five. The Stars got hammered 8-3 by Winnipeg on Thursday, and Miro Heiskanen is day-to-day. Mikko Rantanen has 21 points. Jake Oettinger is confirmed, and Alex Lyon is likely for Buffalo. Our numbers have Dallas near 65%. Stars.
Sharks at Mammoth, 9:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Utah’s power play scores on 34.3% of its chances. San Jose scores under two and a half goals a game and gives up 30 shots a night. Macklin Celebrini has 23 points. The Mammoth have lost four straight, and Logan Cooley and Nick Schmaltz are both day-to-day, so check them. Karel Vejmelka and Yaroslav Askarov are the expected starters. Our numbers have Utah near 73%. Mammoth.
Islanders at Ducks, 10:00 PM ET, ESPN+
A coin flip, basically. Anaheim’s power play is absurd at 36.8%, and Cutter Gauthier has 16 goals. But the Isles kill 85.7% of penalties, and the Ducks have won three of nine at home. Mathew Barzal is out for New York. Ilya Sorokin and Laurent Brossoit are the expected starters. Isles, barely.
Flames at Kings, 10:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Los Angeles has won two of nine at home, so this isn’t a fortress. But Calgary scores under two and a half goals a game and has won two of eight on the road. Artemi Panarin has 19 points for LA. The Kings kill only 65.5% of penalties, and the Flames’ power play is good at 29.5%, so stay out of the box. Darcy Kuemper and Dustin Wolf are the expected starters. Kings, barely.
Game Day Parlay
Our two favorite home spots, together.
The angleSt. Louis takes advantage of a short-handed Florida team, and Dallas shuts down Buffalo at home.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Est. price: about +255 at these numbers (the legs multiplied). Your book sets the real price.
Lines as of Friday. Goalies updated Saturday afternoon. A few are still unconfirmed, so check before puck drop.
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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.