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I’ll lay three and a half with New England at home. Our preview had the Patriots as one of the best teams in the league and the Raiders as one of the worst, and the board only asks for a field goal and a hook. It’s a lean because New England’s secondary is in pieces.
The Number
Our preview had Las Vegas at 5.4 wins and New England at 11. One point of spread for every win, plus three for the home team, makes this New England by 8.6. The board has New England by three and a half. That’s 5.1 points of daylight on the Patriots. We cut that gap in half, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does, which leaves 2.6 points. That’s a real disagreement, but every NFL side on this week’s board is a lean.
The line opened at three and a half and hasn’t moved, with about seven in ten bets on New England.
The Matchup
The catch is real. The Patriots have ruled out four cornerbacks, including Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis. Kirk Cousins has cleared 229 passing yards in each of his last three games, and he’ll have room to throw. But the Raiders may be without Ashton Jeanty, who is questionable with an ankle and foot injury, and Las Vegas has to keep pace with a New England offense whose quarterback, Drake Maye, practiced fully all week. Hunter Henry and Romeo Doubs have each cleared their receiving lines in two of their last three.
Bottom Line
Take New England minus three and a half at . Lean. Our numbers make New England better than an eight-point favorite, and the board asks three and a half. The banged-up secondary is why it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs, one read: New England covers by moving the ball through the air with its tight end and top receiver. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleNew England covers with Henry and Doubs moving the chains.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
He’s cleared this in all three of his last games, and New England is missing four corners.
- Trend3 of 3: 253, 248 and 365
- MatchupThe Patriots have ruled out Gonzalez and Davis
He’s cleared this in two of his last three, and Mack Hollins is out.
- Trend2 of 3: 96, 49 and 58
- MatchupMore targets with Hollins ruled out
Prices checked Friday at 5:00 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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