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I’ll take Miami plus six and a half at home, but this is the biggest gap on the NFL board and I don’t trust it all the way. The numbers make the 0-4 Dolphins a small favorite. The board makes Cincinnati a touchdown favorite on the road. It’s a lean with a flag on it.
The Number
Our preview had Cincinnati at 6.8 wins and Miami at 6.5. One point of spread for every win, plus three for the home team, makes this Miami by 2.7. The board has Cincinnati by six and a half. That’s 9.2 points of daylight on the Dolphins. We cut that gap in half, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does, which leaves 4.6 points. That’s past our four-point warning line, so read this as a flag as much as a pick.
The line opened at eight and a half and has come down to six and a half, even with three quarters of the bets and almost nine in ten dollars on Cincinnati. A gap this big usually means the numbers are missing something. Here it’s Miami’s 0-4 start and the loss of De’Von Achane, who is out.
The Matchup
The Bengals may not have their best receiver. Ja’Marr Chase is questionable with a concussion, and Tee Higgins didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. If both sit, Joe Burrow is throwing to his third and fourth options. The Dolphins have Malik Willis at quarterback, and he’s cleared 192 passing yards in two of his last three against a Cincinnati pass defense that ranks 26th. Chase Brown has been held under 68 rushing yards in two of his last three.
Bottom Line
Take Miami plus six and a half at . Lean. Our numbers make Miami a small home favorite, and the board has the Dolphins getting six and a half. The gap is past our warning line and Miami hasn’t won a game, so it’s a lean with a flag.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs, one read: Miami keeps it inside a touchdown because Willis moves the ball and Cincinnati’s run game stalls. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleMiami covers with Willis moving the ball and Cincinnati’s run game held in check.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
He’s cleared this in two of his last three games.
- Trend2 of 3: 197, 210 and 85
- MatchupCincinnati’s pass defense ranks 26th
He’s stayed under this in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of 3 under: 80, 61 and 10
- MatchupMiami’s run defense sits in the middle of the league
Prices checked Friday at 5:00 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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