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I’ll lay three and a half with Atlanta on Sunday night, and I’m going against my own numbers to do it. They like Baltimore. But they were built with Lamar Jackson, and Lamar is out. It’s a lean.
The Number
Our preview had Baltimore at 9.1 wins and Atlanta at 6.7. One point of spread for every win, plus three for the home team, makes this Atlanta by 0.6. The board has Atlanta by three and a half. That’s 2.9 points of daylight on the Ravens. We cut that gap in half, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does, which leaves 1.5 points. That’s a small edge, so it’s a lean.
This is where our injury rule takes over. Lamar was ruled out Friday with an ankle injury, so Tyler Huntley starts, and Baltimore’s 9.1 means very little without him. Our rules let us override the numbers when the starting quarterback is out in a game inside ten points. The market already flipped: Baltimore was about a six-point favorite on the look-ahead line, and it’s Atlanta by three and a half now.
The Matchup
Without Lamar, the Ravens will lean on Derrick Henry, who has carried at least 23 times in two of his last three games. Baltimore is also banged up on defense: Trey Hendrickson, Marlon Humphrey and center Cam Jurgens all missed Thursday’s practice. Humphrey being limited matters for the Falcons, because Drake London has cleared 80 receiving yards in two of his last three.
Bottom Line
Take Atlanta minus three and a half at . Lean. Our numbers liked Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, and he isn’t playing. The market has already moved nine points, which is why it’s a lean and not more.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs, one read: Atlanta covers because London beats a banged-up secondary, while Baltimore hands it to Henry all night. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleLondon beats Baltimore’s secondary and Atlanta covers against a backup quarterback.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
He’s cleared this in two of his last three games.
- Trend2 of 3: 51, 194 and 96
- MatchupMarlon Humphrey missed practice Thursday
With a backup quarterback, Baltimore runs the ball.
- Trend2 of 3: 16, 26 and 23
- MatchupHuntley starts in place of Lamar Jackson
Prices checked Friday at 5:00 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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