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Fire the cannons, and hold onto your hats. NWS has the wind at 17 mph sustained in Tampa at kickoff, so the Under is my Featured play. On the side, Tampa is down to its backup again, so I’m laying the two and a half with the Terrible Towels.
The Matchup
- The wind. The NWS hourly forecast has 17 mph from the northeast at kickoff, building to 18. That’s over our 15 mph line. The total has slipped a point from the market’s 40.5 opener, but it hasn’t moved off 39.5 at the books on the card, so by our rule the wind isn’t priced in yet.
- Tampa’s quarterback. Baker Mayfield is ruled out with a thumb injury. Jalon Daniels started the last two: 19 of 27 for 148 in a loss to Green Bay, then 19 of 25 for 189 in a 24-16 win at Dallas. The Bucs are 1-4.
- Pittsburgh is running it well. The Steelers are 3-2. Jaylen Warren has 127, 93 and 101 rushing yards in his last three, and Aaron Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns in three games.
- Tampa’s run defense. The Bucs allow 72.8 rushing yards a game, second fewest in the league. Something has to give.
- Kickoff. 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium, on CBS. Sunny, 75 degrees.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 8.8 wins for Pittsburgh and 7.7 for Tampa Bay. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Tampa Bay by a few tenths. The board has Pittsburgh by two and a half. That’s 2.9 points of daylight on Tampa Bay.
On the total: wind of 10 mph or more has sent games under about 58% of the time over the last 11 seasons. Our rule is stricter, 15 mph sustained, and this forecast clears it. We’ll recheck it Saturday at 8 PM and three hours before kickoff; if it drops under 15, the Under gets pulled. Play the Under to 38.5.
On the side, our numbers were built with Mayfield. When a starting quarterback is out in a game inside ten points, our injury rule overrides them, so the side goes with the board: Pittsburgh. Because the rule overrides our tested method, the Steelers are a Game Pick; the wind Under is the Featured pick. The honest case against Pittsburgh: Tampa allows the second fewest rushing yards in the league, and the wind can make any game a coin flip. Both land on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If the wind is lighter than forecast. We pull the Under before kickoff if the forecast drops below 15.
- If Tampa leads at halftime. Leave it.
- If Pittsburgh hits a long pass early. Don’t chase the Over. The wind gets worse in the second half.
Bottom Line
Take the Under 39.5, playable to 38.5, and the Steelers minus two and a half at . Lean. A windy day keeps it low, and Tampa is starting its backup. Under, and Steelers.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If the wind blows like the forecast says, nobody scores much, Pittsburgh grinds out a win with Rodgers dumping it to Jaylen Warren. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleThe wind keeps it low and Pittsburgh grinds it out with Warren.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
He’s over this as a receiver three straight weeks, and short passes beat the wind.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 49, 33 and 87 receiving yards
- MatchupTampa’s run defense is stout, which pushes Pittsburgh to the short passing game
Three straight games over 90.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 127, 93 and 101 rushing yards
- MatchupThe catch: Tampa allows 72.8 rushing yards a game, second fewest
Three touchdowns in his last two games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupRed-zone tight end on a windy day when short throws are the play
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