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My White Sox vs Guardians pick is Chicago to go up two games to none in Cleveland. Sean Burke has owned this lineup all year, Gavin Williams gives up the long ball, and Chicago has a guy who just hit one 440 feet. The price is a little short, so it’s a lean, but it’s my side.
The Matchup
- Chicago shut Cleveland out in Game 1. Five White Sox pitchers held the Guardians to three hits and struck out 12 in a 3-0 win. Munetaka Murakami hit a two-run homer 440 feet to right, and Colson Montgomery added a run-scoring double in the seventh. Cleveland had the bases loaded with two outs in the third and again in the fourth and got nothing.
- Burke is the real starter tonight. Anthony Kay takes the ball first, and Burke is expected to get the ball from him early and pitch most of the game. Burke is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA against the Guardians this year, with 21 strikeouts and three walks. His career ERA at Progressive Field is 2.57.
- Williams strikes everybody out and gives up homers. His 248 strikeouts led the American League, and his ERA was 3.76. About half the earned runs he allowed came on home runs, the sixth-highest share among qualified pitchers. His last start was September 25 against Kansas City, and he gave up four runs and walked four in 3 1/3 innings.
- Both bullpens are rested. Grant Taylor threw 42 pitches and Hagen Smith threw 51 in Game 1, and both are available. Cleveland didn’t burn anybody, so closer Cade Smith is ready. These teams finished a game apart, Cleveland at 85-77 and Chicago at 84-78. First pitch is 5 PM ET on TBS and truTV.
The Number
The best price on Chicago on our odds board right now is . When I wrote this, that was a little worse than a fair price once you take the house’s cut out of the market. So I’m paying a touch more than I should, and I’m saying that out loud.
Game 1 and Burke’s numbers against this lineup are the reasons the market has been warming up to Chicago.
Here’s the honest version. This is my side, not a bet I’m putting real money behind. We only stake a game when the price beats the fair number, and tonight it doesn’t. The baseball case is good. The price just isn’t a gift. White Sox to win, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Cleveland scores off Kay before Burke comes in. Look at the White Sox on the live number. Burke against this lineup is the whole reason I’m here, and you’ll get a better price than you got before first pitch to watch him work.
- If Williams gives up a homer and Chicago leads after three. Leave it. That’s the case playing out exactly the way I drew it up.
- If Burke is in and walking people. Don’t add. Three walks in 17 1/3 innings is his story against Cleveland, and if that’s not the guy on the mound, you don’t chase.
- If it’s tied going to the seventh. Do nothing. Both bullpens are fresh, so a tie late is a coin flip and the live price will tell you so.
Bottom Line
Take the White Sox to win at . Lean. Burke has a 1.04 ERA against this lineup and Williams leans on strikeouts while giving up homers to a lineup that can hit them. The price was a little short of fair when I wrote this, so it stays a lean and it stays small.
Best White Sox vs Guardians Props
Three bets beyond the side, all built on Gavin Williams. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. The first two lean the same way, since a homer is the quickest way to get Williams out of the game, so count them as one position. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He strikes out everybody else, but Chicago makes him work, and he has never gotten through six innings against them.
- TrendUnder 7.5 in 6 of 7 career starts against Chicago, with 8, 6, 7 and 7 this season
- MatchupHis longest start against Chicago is 5 2/3 innings, he lasted 3 1/3 in his last start, and Cleveland’s whole bullpen is rested
He is the hardest hitter in this series, and Williams gives up the long ball.
- Trend35 homers this season, 4 in his last 10 regular-season games, then a 440-foot shot in Game 1
- Matchup1-for-5 against Williams, and the one hit was a homer. About half the earned runs Williams allowed this year came on homers
Nobody in this lineup has seen Williams better, and he bats third, so he gets his at-bats.
- TrendAll-Star season: .250 with 33 homers and 93 RBIs
- Matchup6-for-14 with a homer against Williams in his career
Prices checked Monday at 11:35 AM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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