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I’ll take Denver plus two and a half at home on Thursday night, and it’s a lean. Our preseason numbers make the Broncos a one-point favorite at Mile High, the board has Seattle by two and a half, and I was wrong about both of these teams last week. So I’m siding with the numbers again, but there’s no stake on it.
The Matchup
- Denver is 3-2 and 2-0 at home. The Broncos lost 31-10 at Kansas City, beat Jacksonville 20-13 and the Rams 30-26 at home, lost 24-14 at San Francisco, then won 23-17 at the Chargers on Sunday with three takeaways. They score 19.4 a game and give up 22.2.
- Seattle is 3-2 and just lost a shootout. The Seahawks beat New England 13-10, won 31-7 at Arizona, lost 33-31 at Washington, beat the Chargers 30-23 and lost 32-29 to San Francisco on Sunday. Sam Darnold threw two interceptions in that one. Seattle scores 26.8 a game and gives up 21.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the problem. He has 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in five games, and he’s over 100 yards in four of them. He was limited early in the week with a sore ankle, practiced fully Wednesday and has no injury designation. Denver has ruled out its best corner, Pat Surtain II, and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both with ankle injuries, and corner Riley Moss (ribs) is questionable.
- Seattle is thin in the backfield and at linebacker. Zach Charbonnet is out and Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, so Emanuel Wilson carries the load. Linebackers Drake Thomas (ankle) and Chazz Surratt (calf) are both out. Both teams played Sunday, but Seattle flies to altitude on the short week. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video at Empower Field at Mile High, and the Broncos are wearing their throwbacks.
The Number
Our preview had Seattle at 13 wins and Denver at 11. One point of spread for every win, plus three for the home team, makes this Denver by one. The board has Seattle by two and a half. That’s three and a half points of daylight on the Broncos. We cut that gap in half, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does, which leaves about a point and three quarters. That’s a real edge, but every NFL side on our board right now is a lean.
Here’s the honest part. Last week I laid three with Seattle at home against San Francisco and took the Chargers plus three and a half against Denver. Both lost. Seattle has also been one of the best road teams in football under Mike Macdonald. And Denver’s offense has topped 23 points once all season. The bets are split close to even, so the market isn’t giving us much of a tell either way.
Why Denver anyway? Points will be hard to come by in a game with a total of forty and a half, so two and a half is real room. Seattle’s run defense is good, but it’s without two linebackers, and Denver’s defense just took the ball away three times on the road. If this stays the low-scoring game the total expects, Denver covers with a win or a loss by two. Nothing on the moneyline at plus one twenty. Denver plus two and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Smith-Njigba hits a long one early. Don’t chase Seattle live. He’s done that almost every week, and Seattle is still 3-2.
- If Denver leads at halftime. Leave it. A lean doesn’t need a second bet, and Seattle has come back before.
- If Seattle leads by ten at halftime. Do nothing. Denver’s offense hasn’t shown it can win a shootout, so there’s no reason to add to a lean.
Bottom Line
Take Denver plus two and a half at . Lean. Our numbers make Denver a small home favorite, and the board gives the Broncos two and a half. Surtain being out and Smith-Njigba’s season are why it’s a lean. The plus three from earlier in the week is gone, so take two and a half at the best price you can find.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If Denver covers, it’s most likely because J.K. Dobbins runs on a Seattle defense without two linebackers, even with Smith-Njigba getting his yards. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleDenver keeps it close by running Dobbins at a Seattle defense without two linebackers, while Smith-Njigba gets his.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 11:04 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Five bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He’s over 100 yards in four of five games, and Denver’s best corner is ruled out.
- Trend2 of 3: 128, 76 and 102 yards
- MatchupPat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga (both ankle) are ruled out
Seven touchdowns in five games, at plus money, against a secondary missing its two best players.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3 and 4 of 5
- MatchupSurtain and Hufanga are both out with ankle injuries
With Charbonnet out and Price on injured reserve, the carries are his, and Denver can be run on.
- Trend2 of 3: 9, 21 and 20 carries
- MatchupDenver allows 145.2 rushing yards a game, one of the worst marks in the league
He’s Seattle’s lead back with Charbonnet out, and he’s scored in each of the last two weeks.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupDenver allows 145.2 rushing yards a game
He had 17 and 18 carries in two of his last three, and Seattle is without two linebackers.
- Trend2 of 3: 49, 40 and 68 yards
- MatchupDrake Thomas (ankle) and Chazz Surratt (calf) are ruled out
Prices checked Thursday at 11:04 AM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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