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I’m taking Green Bay plus one and a half at Lambeau. The numbers already liked the Packers at home, and now Chicago is starting its backup quarterback. It’s a lean, but it’s one of the better ones on the board.
The Number
Our preview had Chicago at 9.1 wins and Green Bay at 9.3. One point of spread for every win, plus three for the home team, makes this Green Bay by 3.2. The board has Chicago by one and a half. That’s 4.7 points of daylight on the Packers. We cut that gap in half, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does, which leaves 2.4 points. That’s a real disagreement, but every NFL side on this week’s board is a lean.
And that’s before the injury. Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring after returning to practice Friday, and Tyson Bagent is expected to start. Chicago’s 9.1 was built with Williams. Green Bay opened as a two-and-a-half-point favorite, and the line has moved four points toward Chicago. More tickets are on Chicago, but more of the money is on Green Bay.
The Matchup
The Bears are 3-1 and have the third-best pass defense in the league, so this probably won’t be a shootout. Jordan Love has stayed under 234 passing yards in two of his last three, and Tucker Kraft hasn’t cleared 42 receiving yards in any of them. But the Packers don’t need a big day through the air against a backup. Chicago is also without running back Kyle Monangai, out with turf toe. In a low-scoring game at home, getting points against Bagent is the side I want.
Bottom Line
Take Green Bay plus one and a half at . Lean. Our numbers make Green Bay a three-point favorite with Williams playing, and Bagent is expected to start. The board still has the Packers getting a point and a half. Chicago’s pass defense keeps it a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs, one read: Green Bay wins a low-scoring game against a backup quarterback, without needing Love to throw for a lot. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleGreen Bay covers in a low-scoring game where Chicago’s pass defense holds Love and Kraft down.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
He’s stayed under this in all three of his last games.
- Trend3 of 3 under: 15, 26 and 42
- MatchupChicago’s pass defense ranks third in the league
He’s stayed under this in two of his last three games.
- Trend2 of 3 under: 145, 312 and 197
- MatchupChicago allows under 180 passing yards a game
Prices checked Friday at 5:00 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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