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I’m taking the Brewers at home in Game 1, and like every baseball pick right now, it’s a lean. Our baseball numbers are new, and until they have a track record every MLB pick here is a lean at confidence one. They like Milwaukee more than the market does, because the best pitcher in baseball this year is on the mound for the Brewers.
The Matchup
- This is a rematch of a sweep. The Dodgers swept Milwaukee in last year’s NLCS, and the Brewers scored four runs in the whole series. Los Angeles is chasing a third straight title.
- Milwaukee won the season series this time. The Brewers took four of seven, including three of four at Dodger Stadium in August. They won 103 games and have home field.
- Both teams are rested and hot. Each won its division series 3-1 and gets three days off. William Contreras had six hits and two home runs against San Diego, and Jackson Chourio drove in six. For Los Angeles, Max Muncy homered three times and Freddie Freeman twice against Atlanta.
- Shohei Ohtani is a question mark. He hit .154 in the division series, has been moved down in the order, and is playing through biceps and knee problems. He’ll hit but not pitch. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Sunday on FOX.
The Pitching
Milwaukee starts Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP: a 1.80 ERA with 252 strikeouts in 174 and two-thirds innings. He’s been even better against Los Angeles in his career, with a 1.59 ERA over 17 innings. His one playoff start was shorter than usual. The Padres fouled off 30 pitches in four innings and drove his count up, and he gave up two runs.
Los Angeles goes with Tarik Skubal, who came over from Detroit during the season. He has a 2.72 ERA in 158 and two-thirds innings and threw six innings of one-run ball in his division series start. That’s an ace against an ace, and both bullpens are rested. Milwaukee’s pen gave up three runs in 19 innings against San Diego.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. These two teams were nearly identical over the season, so the starter swap does most of the work, and Misiorowski’s season is about as good as it gets. The numbers make Milwaukee about a 58% shot. The price says about 51%. That’s a gap of more than seven points, well past our four-point warning line.
A gap that big usually means the numbers are missing something, and here I can name it. The Dodgers’ season totals include months without Skubal, and they don’t know Los Angeles has won this matchup every October. I still like the Brewers at home with their ace, but that warning plus a brand new set of numbers keeps this a lean. Brewers on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at . Lean. Milwaukee has the best pitcher in baseball on the mound at home and won the season series. Our numbers like the Brewers more than the price does, but the gap is past our warning line and the Dodgers have owned this matchup in October, so it’s a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both posted at the book on the card. If Milwaukee wins Game 1, it’s most likely because Misiorowski keeps the Dodgers quiet in an ace-against-ace game. The total is six, the lowest of the postseason. Both legs need the same night, so this is one position, not two bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleMisiorowski outduels Skubal and the Brewers win a low-scoring Game 1.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Saturday evening; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best
Best Props for This Game
We’ll add three to five verified props before first pitch, each with a trend, a matchup and a real price, and a third parlay leg with them. Player props not available in all states.
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