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Bills Mafia is taking over Vegas. Buffalo is 4-1 and just won a shootout with the Rams, and the Raiders got rolled 45-17 in New England. Our number has the Bills by six. I’m laying five and a half.
The Matchup
- Buffalo scores. The Bills are 4-1 and average 32.8 points. The only loss was 29-26 to New England. James Cook has 532 rushing yards.
- Vegas can’t stop the run. The Raiders allow 140.6 rushing yards a game, fourth most. They started 3-0, then lost 30-27 to Kansas City and 45-17 at New England.
- Brock Bowers is a problem. He’s had 116, 86 and 110 receiving yards and scored in all three games he’s played. Buffalo allows 280.4 net passing yards a game, second most.
- Kickoff. 4:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium, on CBS. Indoors.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 11.2 wins for Buffalo and 3.4 for Las Vegas. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Buffalo by about six. The board has Buffalo by five and a half. That’s 0.8 points of daylight on Buffalo.
The honest case against: Buffalo’s pass defense has been bad, and Bowers can keep Vegas in it. DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer are questionable. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Vegas leads early. Hold. Buffalo has scored 36 or more three times.
- If Buffalo leads by two scores at halftime. Leave it.
- If Cook is rolling. That’s the plan.
Bottom Line
Take the Bills minus five and a half at . Lean. Better team, better offense, against a run defense that can’t hold up. Bills.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all at the book that posts this spread. If Buffalo covers by running it, Josh Allen doesn’t need a big passing day, and Bowers still gets his yards for Vegas. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleBuffalo wins on the ground while Bowers still gets his.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Over 85 in every game he’s played.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 116, 86 and 110 receiving yards
- MatchupBuffalo allows 280.4 net passing yards a game, second most
He’s been under in two of his last three, and Buffalo will run.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 204, 253 and 210 passing yards
- MatchupLas Vegas allows 140.6 rushing yards a game, fourth most
Steady in the 40s three straight weeks.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 43, 44 and 41 receiving yards
- MatchupBuffalo allows 280.4 net passing yards a game
He’s scored in every game he’s played.
- TrendScored in 3 of his last 3
- MatchupBuffalo’s pass defense ranks near the bottom
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