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Nobody wants the 0-5 Chargers. That’s exactly why I’ll take seven and a half at Arrowhead. Our number has Kansas City by under two. Every Chargers loss has come by 12 points or fewer. Bolt up.
The Matchup
- The Chargers lose close. Los Angeles is 0-5: 26-14 to Arizona, 26-14 to Las Vegas, 24-16 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Seattle and 23-17 to Denver.
- Kansas City is unbeaten. The Chiefs are 4-0 out of their bye: 31-10 over Denver, 33-30 over Indianapolis, 24-10 at Miami and 30-27 at Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes has 1,037 yards and nine touchdowns.
- Herbert’s been stuck. Justin Herbert has thrown for 121 to 226 yards every week, and the receiving corps is banged up: Tre’ Harris is out, though Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have no injury designation.
- Weather and kickoff. Sunny, 67 degrees, wind 12 mph S (NWS hourly, checked Friday 3:00 AM ET). That’s breezy but under our 15 mph line, so no wind pick. 4:25 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium, on CBS.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 9.3 wins for the Chargers and 9.5 for Kansas City. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Kansas City by about a point and a half. The board has Kansas City by seven and a half. That’s 5.8 points of daylight on the Chargers.
The honest case against: 0-5 is 0-5, and the receivers are hurt. But seven and a half is a lot for a division game against a team that has lost every game by two scores or less. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If KC leads by 10 at halftime. Leave it. That’s been the Chargers’ script and they keep it close.
- If Herbert’s receivers are ruled out. Still hold.
- If the Chargers lead early. Nothing to add.
Bottom Line
Take the Chargers plus seven and a half at . Lean. Too many points in a division game for a team that loses close. Chargers.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both at the book that posts this spread. If the Chargers cover, it’s probably a Chiefs win where Mahomes gets his yards and the margin stays under eight. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
The angleKansas City wins it through the air, but the Chargers stay inside the number.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Over 245 in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 382, 246 and 225 passing yards
- MatchupThe Chargers allow 193 net passing yards a game, but Mahomes has cleared it anyway
Over 32 in every game this year.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 56, 45 and 33 rushing yards
- MatchupKansas City allows 92.8 rushing yards a game
Over 55 in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 101, 59 and 15 receiving yards
- MatchupDivision rival, familiar matchup
Two touchdowns in his last three games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupHe’s still the red-zone target
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