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Sunday night at Lambeau. Micah Parsons sitting out against his old team is the storyline, and Dallas can’t stop the run. The Packers just smoked the Bears 31-7. Our number has Green Bay by three, so I’ll lay the point and a half. Go Pack Go.
The Matchup
- Dallas can’t stop the run. The Cowboys allow 168.4 rushing yards a game, the most in the league. They’re 2-3 after a 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
- Green Bay is banged up. Micah Parsons, Javon Hargrave and Josh Jacobs are out. MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson have been the other backs. The Packers are 3-2 and won their last two.
- Both quarterbacks can throw. Jordan Love threw for 367 and two touchdowns against Chicago. Dak Prescott has 1,381 yards, and George Pickens has 82, 75 and 130 in his last three.
- Weather and kickoff. Clear, 57 degrees, wind 10 mph SSW (NWS hourly, checked Friday 3:00 AM ET). Under our 15 mph line, no wind pick. 8:20 PM ET at Lambeau Field, on NBC.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 7.7 wins for Dallas and 9.3 for Green Bay. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Green Bay by about three. The board has Green Bay by a point and a half. That’s 1.6 points of daylight on Green Bay.
The honest case against: without Parsons, Green Bay’s pass rush takes a hit, and Prescott has thrown for 276, 335 and 316 the last three weeks. But Dallas’s run defense is the worst in football. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Dallas hits a big play early. Hold. This will be a back-and-forth game.
- If Green Bay is running well by halftime. That’s the plan.
- If it’s tied late. Nothing to add.
Bottom Line
Take the Packers minus one and a half at . Lean. Home team at night against the worst run defense in the league. Packers.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Green Bay covers, it’s probably a game with points, where Love clears his number and Pickens still gets his for Dallas. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleGreen Bay wins a shootout at Lambeau, with Love and Pickens both getting theirs.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Over 75 in three straight.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 82, 75 and 130 receiving yards
- MatchupThe catch: Green Bay allows 181 net passing yards a game, fifth fewest
Over 310 in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 312, 197 and 367 passing yards
- MatchupDallas allows 227 net passing yards a game
Under 25 three weeks running.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 23, 11 and 19 receiving yards
- MatchupPickens and Lamb are eating the targets
Six touchdowns in five games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupGreen Bay’s big-play receiver against a defense that’s given up 27 a game
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