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Houston has looked better for two weeks and this line has fallen six points to prove it. I’ll still lay the seven and a half with Texas Tech at home, but only a little.
The Matchup
- Both teams have already played Oregon State. Houston beat the Beavers 33-20 in its opener with four sacks and 26 rushing yards allowed. Texas Tech trailed Oregon State 24-21 early in the fourth quarter last week before winning 35-24, and gave up 399 passing yards doing it.
- Houston’s run game is rolling, against a soft schedule. The Cougars scored touchdowns on their first eleven drives in a 77-6 win over Southern and ran for 388 yards. That is two straight games over 225 on the ground. Southern plays in the FCS, so weight it, and Willie Fritz said this week his team has to be better up front on both sides of the ball.
- Will Hammond is back and taking hits. Our Texas Tech preview worried about a quarterback returning from a torn ACL with two career starts. He threw for 298 yards in the opener, then was sacked four times at Oregon State. Joey McGuire told him this week he has to turn the ball loose. Our preview is also against Texas Tech’s season win total, and this pick is one game.
- The Texas Tech injury news is mixed. Cornerback Amier Boyd, who had an interception last week, is reported out. McGuire said safety BJ Jordan is back from a team suspension and that tight end Terrance Carter Jr. and edge Trey White are trending toward playing. He also called Houston maybe the best team his side has played in two years.
The Number
SP+ rates Texas Tech 7.5 points better than Houston. Add two and a half for Lubbock and the projection is Texas Tech by ten. The board says seven and a half, so our numbers sit two and a half points on the home side.
The market disagrees, and loudly. Last Thursday this game was Texas Tech by thirteen and a half. It is seven and a half now, a six point move toward Houston, straight past ten. We could not find an injury or a quarterback change behind it. It looks like money following the Week 2 scores, a 77-6 blowout on one side and a fourth quarter escape on the other, and our ratings already count both of those games. When our numbers and the market disagree this much, the market is usually right.
So be clear about what this bet is. We are laying the points because seven and a half sits under our number, not because we think Texas Tech rolls. A seven point Texas Tech win loses, and Houston’s run game is exactly how a road team keeps a game that close. Confidence two, a half play. Nothing on the moneyline at -310.
In-Game Bets
- If Hammond is sacked twice in the first quarter. Get out. That is last week’s protection problem arriving early against a better front.
- If Houston has 100 rushing yards at halftime. Get out. The formula from the last two weeks is working against a real defense.
- If Texas Tech leads by fourteen or more at the half. Hold. The six point move was the overreaction and the number is doing what our ratings said it would.
Bottom Line
Lay the seven and a half with Texas Tech at , and keep it small. Our ratings make it Texas Tech by ten. The market moved six points the other way and has earned some respect for it. We are here for the gap between seven and a half and ten, and nothing more.
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