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Michigan is starting a true freshman quarterback. Tommy Carr makes his first career start at noon in the Big House, behind an offensive line that’s banged up. Indiana is coming off a loss to Ohio State and has nobody on its injury report. When a team’s starting quarterback changes and the spread is under ten, we go with the board, and the board says Indiana.
The Matchup
- Michigan’s quarterback change. True freshman Tommy Carr is set to make his first career start, though Indiana is preparing for Bryce Underwood to play too.
- Michigan’s line is thin. Andrew Sprague is out, and Jake Guarnera, Brady Norton and Blake Frazier are questionable.
- Indiana is healthy. The No. 6 Hoosiers are 6-1, and their availability report is empty. Josh Hoover says he feels fine after the 19-15 loss to Ohio State.
- Michigan plays close games. The Wolverines are 4-2, and five of their six games were decided by seven points or fewer.
- Kickoff. Noon ET at Michigan Stadium, on Fox.
The Number
We first had Michigan with the points, because its games have been tight and the total is low. A freshman’s first start behind a banged-up line changes that, and our rule for a quarterback change is to stop fighting the board.
The honest case against: Michigan’s games have been rock fights, and seven and a half is a lot of points when the total is 41.5. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose. Our college ratings haven’t beaten the lines in testing, so every college pick is a lean.
Bottom Line
Take Indiana minus seven and a half at . Lean. A freshman quarterback’s first start against the No. 6 team. Hoosiers.
Lines as posted Friday at 4:36 PM ET, after the availability reports. Final reports come out before kickoff, so check them. We don’t post college player props.
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