Are These Chiefs Really Worth Nine and a Half?

The Jets lose close. Every week.

The Jets have six losses. Five of them came by seven points or fewer, and the last three were all one-score games. The only blowout was 23-12 in Chicago. Last week they scored on their first six drives against the Raiders and still lost 38-33. That’s a frustrating team. It’s not a team that gets run off the field.

Our numbers have Kansas City by about nine. The board is giving nine and a half. Give me the Jets with the points.

Kansas City can't get home

The Chiefs have nine sacks in seven games. Chris Jones has half a sack. Corner Mansoor Delane is out with a shoulder injury and L’Jarius Sneed is on injured reserve. A Chiefs defense that can’t pressure the quarterback and is short at corner is a bad bet to win by double digits.

The Jets have 20 sacks. They’ll get to Mahomes more than the Chiefs get to Geno.

Geno is protecting the football

Geno Smith has three interceptions on 239 throws, and the Jets average 8.0 yards a pass. He’s gone over 211.5 passing yards in four of his last six, including 287 and 290 the last two weeks. Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion, which hurts, but Adonai Mitchell just went for seven catches, 142 yards and a touchdown. And Breece Hall says he’s ready to go after missing five games with a quad injury.

Geno over 211.5 is the prop. He gets time, he throws it.

These aren't the old Chiefs

Kansas City started 5-0, then scored three points in Seattle and blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in Denver. The Chiefs have short-yardage problems, and Harrison Butker has missed 16 kicks since the start of last season, the most in the NFL. Laying nine and a half with a kicker you can’t trust is a lot to ask.