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This is a coin flip with a point and a half stapled to it. If you made me pick, I’d take SMU and the points. Nobody is making you, and we are not staking it.
The Matchup
- SMU has owned this matchup lately. The Mustangs won 34-27 at Louisville in 2024 and 38-6 in Dallas last November. Rhett Lashlee called last year’s score an outlier this week, which is the polite thing to say before a road game.
- Kevin Jennings is playing as well as any quarterback in the country. He threw for 430 yards in the 27-24 win at Florida State, settled by a field goal with 21 seconds left. Against UC Davis he went 14 of 16 for 337 yards and five touchdowns before sitting the second half. He also broke SMU’s career record for total yards.
- Lincoln Kienholz answered the question our preview asked. Our Louisville preview said he had never been a starter. In his first start he threw for 307 yards and ran for 69 in a 41-38 loss to Ole Miss decided by a field goal at the gun, then accounted for four touchdowns against Villanova.
- Louisville’s injury list cuts both ways. Jeff Brohm said Demeco Kennedy probably will not play and he hopes to get back running back Keyjuan Brown and right tackle Cason Henry. A judge cleared linebacker Kalib Perry to play on Monday. SMU safety Ahmaad Moses is still waiting on medical clearance.
The Number
SP+ rates SMU at 15.3 and Louisville at 14.1. Give Louisville two and a half for playing at home and the projection is the Cardinals by 1.3. The board says 1.5. That is two tenths of a point, and the line has not moved all week. Our numbers and the market are looking at the same game and seeing the same thing.
That is exactly when we do not bet. This page exists because two ranked teams at 3:30 on a Saturday is worth reading about, not because we found something the books missed. Our rule is that a game gets a stake only when the number gives us a reason, and a coin flip at the market price is not a reason. Betting it anyway means paying the juice for the privilege of flipping it. At -110 you need to win 52.4 percent of the time just to break even, and two tenths of a point does not come close.
If you are going to play it regardless, SMU and the point and a half is the side where the two tenths sit. It wins if SMU wins and it survives a one point Louisville win. That is the whole case, and it is why the card reads confidence one with no stake.
In-Game Bets
- If Jennings has 150 passing yards in the first quarter. Hold. Brohm said keeping him in the pocket and getting pressure was the key, and that is Louisville losing the one fight it named.
- If Louisville leads by ten or more at halftime. Get out. A home team up two scores with Kienholz running the ball is not a coin flip any more.
- If the game is within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Do nothing. That is what a 1.5 point line looks like when both teams are who we thought.
Bottom Line
SMU and the point and a half at is the lean, and it is only a lean. Our numbers make this Louisville by 1.3 against a 1.5 line that has not moved. Watch it. We are not staking it.
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