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Indiana is priced for another 11-1 without the quarterback who won it everything. Fernando Mendoza went first overall in April. The books still want eleven wins from a TCU transfer, and I am taking the other side.
Key Storylines
- The Heisman winner is gone and he is not the only one. Fernando Mendoza went first overall to Las Vegas after winning the Heisman and quarterbacking a 16-0 national championship. All-American cornerback D’Angelo Ponds and leading receiver Omar Cooper Jr. also left for the draft. Indiana returns 56 percent of its production, 52nd nationally.
- Josh Hoover is a real answer, not a panic move. The TCU transfer threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns last season against 13 interceptions, owns the TCU single-season record at 3,949 yards, and leaves with 9,629 career passing yards and 71 touchdowns over 36 games. That is a starting quarterback, and a productive one. It is also a downgrade from the first pick in the draft, and the schedule does not care about the difference.
- The staff is the part that did not move. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines is back for a second season on a deal paying him $3 million, and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan returns alongside co-coordinator Tino Sunseri. Curt Cignetti took over a program that had gone 9-27 in the three seasons before he arrived. Continuity is the strongest argument against this play and I am not pretending otherwise.
- The portal class is aggressive. Indiana brought in 17 transfers, headlined by Penn State cornerback A.J. Harris and Kansas State edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi, plus Miami tight end Brock Schott and Michigan State receiver Nick Marsh, who caught 100 balls for 1,311 yards over the last two seasons and is the target Hoover will lean on first. That is a roster patched with quality. Whether it fits together by the middle of October is the whole question.
- The offensive line is the best argument against me. CBS Sports rates it the No. 1 line in the country entering the season. Four starters return, including Carter Smith, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year, plus Bray Lynch, Drew Evans and Adedamola Ajani, with Wisconsin transfer Joe Brunner joining them. Evans has not allowed a sack in 656 pass-protection snaps over two seasons, and the group gave up just 22 all of last year. Hoover is walking in behind the best protection of his career.
- The defense was the engine, and the specialists split. Indiana’s defense recorded 46 sacks, second in the country, and led the nation with 129 tackles for loss, and SP+ projects it fourth again. Kicker Nicolas Radicic is back after 158 straight extra points, an IU record, and 28 of 30 career field goals. But the punter, the punt returner, the long snapper and the kickoff specialist are all gone, replaced in part by 29-year-old transfer punter Billy Gowers, who averaged 46.2 yards last season. Field position was a quiet weapon for a 16-0 team. It is now a question.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 10.5, with the Under at -104 and the Over at -118 as of August 17.
Start with what the Over actually asks for. Indiana plays twelve regular season games, and conference title games and playoff games do not count toward this number. So the Over needs 11-1, and it needs it from a team breaking in a new quarterback. The Under needs Indiana to lose two of twelve.
SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, likes this roster a lot. Bill Connelly’s preseason projection has Indiana fifth overall at 25.8, with the offense seventh and the defense fourth. That is a genuine top-five team, and it is the reason this is a light play rather than a bigger one.
It also projects 10.0 wins from this schedule. Adjusted for the rating’s market bias, call it 10.15 against a line of 10.5, a lean of a third of a win toward the Under. Small, real, and the Under is the cheaper side.
Here is the tension. Fifth in SP+ is a rating of quality, not a prediction of 11-1. The schedule includes Ohio State at home, a trip to Michigan, USC at home and a trip to Washington. Indiana has to win four of those five hard dates and sweep everything else, or run the table elsewhere and take three.
Then the roster math. Indiana returns 56 percent of its snaps and yards, 52nd in the country, off a season where the best player at the most important position went first in the draft. That is a middling return for a team being asked to repeat a perfect regular season.
Take the Under at -104.
Big Ten Picture
BetMGM prices Indiana at +250 to win the Big Ten and +800 to win the national championship, with the playoff at -300 to make it. Those are short numbers for a team replacing the first overall pick, and they reflect what the market thinks of Cignetti more than what it thinks of this particular roster.
The conference runs through Ohio State, the preseason number one, and Oregon at number two. Indiana hosts Ohio State on October 17 and does not play Oregon at all, which is the single friendliest thing about this draw.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 10.5 wins (-104): The lead play. Eleven and one with a first-year starter, against a schedule with four genuine tests, and a projection that sits under the number.
- Big Ten winner (+250): Pass. Indiana would have to clear Ohio State and Oregon in the same year it replaces its quarterback, and +250 does not pay enough for that.
- National championship (+800): Pass, and note what it says. The market has not moved off Indiana at all, which is exactly why the win total is the better place to disagree.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-3: Three home games at Memorial Stadium against North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky. Howard is an FCS opponent. This is where a new quarterback gets comfortable, and where the Over has to bank all three without a stumble.
Weeks 4-6: Northwestern visits on September 25, then Indiana goes to Rutgers and Nebraska on back-to-back road weekends. Lincoln in October is the first honest test of whether Hoover travels.
Weeks 7-9: This is the season. Ohio State comes to Bloomington on October 17, Indiana goes to Michigan on October 24, then Minnesota visits. The Buckeyes are the preseason number one. Ann Arbor in late October is where perfect seasons go to end.
Weeks 11-13: After the bye, USC comes in on November 14, Indiana flies to Washington on November 21, then closes with Purdue and the Old Oaken Bucket. Seattle in late November is a long trip for a team that may already be carrying two losses.
Bottom Line
Sixteen and zero was the best season in program history and it left with the quarterback. Indiana is still a top-five roster with the same coaches, and the projection still sits under the number. Eleven and one is a different ask. Take the Under at -104.
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