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Washington won nine games last year, and the books want -160 for more of the same. That is a tax, not a bet. I am on the Under at +135.
Key Storylines
- There is no offensive coordinator. Jimmie Dougherty and Washington parted ways in February after one season, and he is now with the Seahawks. Jedd Fisch has not replaced him. He is calling the offense himself and promoting JP Losman to quarterbacks coach. Fisch is an offensive head coach by trade, so I read this as a risk rather than a crisis. It is still the biggest unknown on the roster.
- Demond Williams Jr. is the reason to turn these games on. The quarterback entered the portal days after signing a deal in the mid seven figures, drew heavy LSU interest, then came back to Montlake. Then he threw for 3,065 yards and 25 touchdowns, ran for 611 more, and became the first Husky ever to throw for 400 and rush for 100 in the same game, against Rutgers. He is the single biggest reason the number is 7.5 rather than 6.5, and he is why the passing props sit on our watch list above.
- The new faces are a real story. Jedd Fisch just signed the highest-rated recruiting class in program history, headlined by five-star tackle Kodi Greene, who flipped from Oregon in the spring. Running back Brian Bonner is the best back Washington has ever signed out of high school. Freshmen linemen rarely swing a win total and I am not betting like they will. But if you want a reason to believe this program is building toward more than 7.5 wins, it is already on the roster. And the schedule closes in Eugene, in case you want a subplot.
- Four starters are back on a line that got a lot better. John Mills, Landen Hatchett, Geirean Hatchett and Drew Azzopardi all return, and the group cut sacks allowed from 39 to 24 in a year while the run game jumped from 3.9 to 4.6 a carry. Whatever the offense loses without a coordinator, it does not lose the five up front.
- The defense is quietly the best part. Ryan Walters returns for a second season after a unit that finished top fifteen in both rushing and scoring defense and never allowed more than 26 points in a game all season. SP+ projects it seventeenth. Washington is one of the few teams on this board with matching offensive and defensive rankings.
- Special teams was rebuilt through the portal. Kicker Tyler Robles arrives from Texas State after going 21 of 23, punter Hunter Green comes from San Diego State with a 47.7 average that ranked sixth in the country, and the same window brought running back Jayden Limar from Oregon and cornerback Manny Karnley by way of Virginia and Arizona, who has been the top coverage man in camp. Field position in a Big Ten November is a real thing, and Washington upgraded it.
- They keep winning nine games, and that is the case against me. Washington has won at least nine in three of the last four seasons, including 9-4 last year with a 38-10 dismantling of Boise State in the LA Bowl. The Over asks for eight. I am not going to pretend that is a stretch for this program.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 7.5, with the Under at +135 and the Over at -160.
I will be straight with you. The model is on the other side of this bet. SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, projects Washington at 7.8 wins against a line of 7.5, so on the raw projection the Over is very slightly the right side. I am taking the Under anyway, and the reason is entirely the price.
A projection three tenths of a win above the number is a coin flip, near enough. Call the Over something like fifty-three percent. Laying -160 means you have to be right more than sixty-one percent of the time. Paying that for a coin flip loses money over a season no matter how good the team is. The Under at +135 only needs to land forty-three percent of the time, and a coin flip clears that with room.
Both sides of this season are close. Only one of them is priced like it. That is the whole bet.
The football underneath is genuinely balanced. SP+ has Washington eighteenth overall at 15.8, offense eighteenth and defense seventeenth, a rare symmetry. Returning production sits at 65 percent, fifteenth nationally. The Over needs eight wins, and after Washington State, Utah State, Eastern Washington and a trip to Purdue, it needs four more from Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan State, USC, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon. The Under needs Washington to lose five of those twelve games. Both are entirely ordinary outcomes for this team.
Take the Under at +135, and keep it small. A light play is me betting the price, not betting against Montlake.
Big Ten Picture
BetMGM has Washington at +3000 to win the Big Ten and +500 to make the playoff, with the miss at -700. Those are the numbers of a solid team in a conference that currently owns the sport.
The Huskies do not draw Ohio State at all, which is the best thing on this schedule and a real argument for the Over. They get Penn State and Indiana at Husky Stadium and travel to Oregon in the final week. Missing the preseason number one entirely is worth a win by itself.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 7.5 wins (+135): The play, kept light, and taken on price rather than on a football read. The projection sits three tenths above the number and the Over still costs -160. That gap is what I am buying.
- Over 7.5 wins (-160): The side the model prefers, and if you can find it at -125 or better somewhere it becomes the correct bet. At -160 it does not.
- To make the playoff (+500): The dart, and an honest one. Washington would need roughly eleven wins with Penn State, Indiana and a trip to Oregon on the card. Small money if you want it, not a position I am recording.
- Big Ten winner (+3000): Pass. The conference has three teams better than this one.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 2-4: The Apple Cup against Washington State opens it on September 5, then Utah State and Eastern Washington come to Montlake. Eastern Washington is an FCS opponent. Three wins banked before the conference schedule starts, and the Over needs all three.
Weeks 5-7: Minnesota visits, then Washington goes to USC on October 3, then hosts Iowa on October 10. The Los Angeles trip is the first real test of an offense with no coordinator, and the Iowa game is the sort of low-scoring grind this defense is built for.
Weeks 8-10: Road games at Purdue and Nebraska with the bye between them. Purdue should be a win. Lincoln in late October is exactly the kind of trip that quietly costs a team its eighth victory.
Weeks 11-14: The closing stretch is brutal. Penn State comes to Husky Stadium on November 7, then Michigan State on the road, then Indiana at home on November 21, then Oregon in Eugene to finish. If Washington needs two of those four to reach eight, this ticket is in good shape.
Bottom Line
Nine wins in three of the last four years, the quarterback back, and a defense that never gave up 27 points all season. The projection says 7.8 against a line of 7.5, so the model fractionally likes the Over. It likes the Over at -160, and that is a losing price for a coin flip. I am on the Under at +135, keeping the stake light, and switching sides if the Over shows up cheaper somewhere. Montlake will be fine either way.
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