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BYU went 11-1 with a true freshman quarterback, then lost the Big 12 title game 34-7. The books cut the number to eight and a half and still charge -160 for the Over. I am taking the plus money on the Under, lightly.
Key Storylines
- Eleven and one, and then a 27-point championship game. BYU beat everything it was supposed to beat in 2025 and reached Arlington at 11-1. Texas Tech then won 34-7. The Cougars recovered to take the Pop-Tarts Bowl 25-21 over Georgia Tech and finished 12-2, eleventh in the final AP poll. It was a very good season. It was also one that never had to beat a great team and did not.
- Bear Bachmeier is back, and he is the reason the Over is the favorite. The Big 12 Freshman of the Year started all fourteen games as a true freshman, threw for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns, ran for 527 more and a school-record eleven rushing scores, and returns with Aaron Roderick entering a sixth year calling the offense and LJ Martin, the Big 12 Player of the Year, behind him after 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. A returning quarterback and a returning star back in a stable system is the strongest argument anyone can make for the Over, and it is a good one.
- The defense lost its architect, and the pass rush was already the question. Jay Hill, hired three years ago and widely credited with transforming that side of the ball, left for Michigan. Kelly Poppinga, a former BYU linebacker and long-time assistant, takes over in his first season as coordinator. SP+ projects the unit 22nd, a few spots behind the offense, and the sack total is the tell: 30 last year, 62nd nationally, up from 20 the year before. Poppinga shopped for it, adding linebacker Cade Uluave from Cal, rated the top transfer linebacker in the country, Jake Clifton from Kansas State and cornerback Jayven Williams from Mississippi State. Continuity of philosophy is likely. Continuity of results is an assumption.
- Two starters are back on the line, and the blind side is a transfer. Bruce Mitchell, a first-team All-Big 12 pick, and tackle Andrew Gentry return. Paki Finau arrives from Washington to play left tackle in front of Bachmeier, with Kyle Sfarcioc from Southern Utah and Jr Sia from Utah State competing inside. Receiver Kyler Kasper from Oregon and tight end Walker Lyons from USC came through the same portal window. That is a quarterback who knows the system behind three linemen who do not, yet.
- The specialists turned over. Will Ferrin, the kicker, is in the NFL, and Matthias Dunn is the favorite to replace him. Punter Sam Vander Haar is out of eligibility unless an appeal lands, with Fuller Shurtz next in line. On a roster that won a lot of close games last year, two new legs are worth a line in any honest preview.
- Notre Dame is on the schedule now, and it was not last year. The Irish visit Provo on October 17 ranked fourth in the preseason poll. BYU gets them at altitude and will not be a soft touch, but this is a game the 2025 team simply did not have to play.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 8.5, with the Under at +135 and the Over at -160.
SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, has BYU 21st, second in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech, in a conference Bill Connelly summarized as Tech, then BYU, then a large mass of everybody else. It projects 8.8 wins, and adjusted for the rating’s market bias that is about 8.95 against a line of 8.5. Read that carefully, because it runs opposite to the pick: the projection leans Over, by about half a win.
The price already knows. Laying -160 asks you to be right about three times in five, which is where the projection puts the Over. That is a market doing its job, and it leaves no edge on either side. When that is the whole picture, our rule is to take the side that pays, at confidence two and a light stake, and to say so plainly. This is a price bet on a coin flip, not a claim that the number is too high.
Now sort the twelve. Utah Tech is an FCS opponent and is banked. Arizona at home, a trip to Colorado State, a trip to UCF, Baylor at home, a trip to Kansas and Cincinnati at home are six more that BYU should be favored in. That is seven.
So the Over needs two wins from five: a trip to TCU, Iowa State at home, Notre Dame at home, Arizona State at home and a trip to Utah. The Under needs BYU to lose four of twelve. Three of those five are in Provo. Two from five is genuinely reachable and I am not going to pretend it is a stretch.
Here is what I will say for the Under. Eleven wins last season came from a schedule that did not include a single top-ten opponent, and the one occasion BYU met the best team it faced, it lost by 27. The defensive coordinator responsible for that record is now in Ann Arbor. The calendar added Notre Dame without taking anything away. None of that is an edge. It is the reason I am comfortable being on the plus-money side of a coin flip.
Take the Under at +135, small.
Big 12 Picture
BetMGM has BYU at +350 to reach the playoff and -450 to miss it. That is a market treating the Cougars as a genuine contender without expecting them to get there, which is roughly where the ratings have them too.
The conference is the interesting part. SP+ has Texas Tech comfortably clear at the top and BYU alone in second, with everyone else bunched behind. A league shaped like that produces exactly the season BYU had last year: a very good team beating a lot of similar teams, right up until it meets the one that is better.
The route back to Arlington runs through a home game against Iowa State, a trip to Utah and a visit from Arizona State, none of which are unwinnable and none of which are gifts.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 8.5 wins (+135): The play, at confidence two, kept light. Plus money on a coin flip, with a new coordinator, a new left tackle, two new specialists and Notre Dame added to the card.
- Over 8.5 wins (-160): The projection’s side, and it is not foolish. Bachmeier and Martin are both back in a sixth-year system, three of the five hard games are in Provo, and BYU has been a top-twenty program in four of the last six seasons. If you think the model lean is worth -160, this is your side. I do not.
- To reach the playoff (+350): Pass, but it is the most interesting longshot I have looked at this week. BYU would need something like eleven wins again plus a Big 12 title, and it is priced closer than that path deserves.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-4: Utah Tech and Arizona at LaVell Edwards, then a trip to Colorado State, then the bye on September 26. Three wins the Over needs banked, and an early bye that gives a first-year coordinator a month of tape before the schedule turns.
Weeks 5-7: The heart of it. Fort Worth on October 3, Iowa State in Provo on October 9, then Notre Dame on October 17. Three consecutive games against teams that can beat them, and the middle one is a Big 12 contender. If BYU comes out of this stretch 1-2, the Under is most of the way home.
Weeks 8-10: A trip to UCF, Arizona State at home on Halloween, then the rivalry at Utah on November 7. Salt Lake City is the hardest road game on the card and the sort of fixture that ignores form entirely.
Weeks 11-13: Baylor at home, a trip to Kansas, then Cincinnati to close. All three are winnable, and if the Cougars need to sweep them to reach nine, that is a nervous November.
Bottom Line
An 11-1 season that ended 34-7 in the only game against an elite opponent, a defensive coordinator who left for Michigan, two new specialists and Notre Dame newly added to the schedule. The quarterback and the system are back, and the projection leans Over by half a win, which the -160 price already charges for. No edge either side, so I take the side that pays. Under 8.5 at +135, confidence two, a light play.
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