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Texas won nine regular-season games last year, and the books want ten this time, against six top-twenty conference opponents with Ohio State visiting in September. I am taking the Under.
Key Storylines
- The schedule is the whole story. Six SEC opponents rate inside the SP+ top twenty: Texas A&M ninth, LSU tenth, Oklahoma eleventh, Tennessee fourteenth, Ole Miss sixteenth and Missouri nineteenth. Then Ohio State, the preseason number one, comes to Austin in week two. Five of those seven games are played somewhere other than Austin.
- The receiving room turned over and the backfield went with it. Texas returns 45.7 percent of its receiving yards, 1,489 of 3,259, along with 43 percent of its receptions and 42.9 percent of its receiving touchdowns. DeAndre Moore Jr., Parker Livingstone and Jamie Ffrench all left, tight end Jack Endries went early to the draft, and leading rusher Quintrevion Wisner entered the portal. Cam Coleman arrives from Auburn to answer it, the contested-catch No. 1 this room suddenly lacks, the headliner of a portal class ranked third in the country. Roughly a third of the non-quarterback rushing yards return.
- Arch Manning is the reason this is not a bigger play. He is back for a second full season as the starter and he closed the last one with 376 yards of offense and four touchdowns in a 41-27 Citrus Bowl win over Michigan. Whatever this schedule does, the most famous name in the sport is playing meaningful November football in burnt orange. Steve Sarkisian is still here and Kyle Flood is in his sixth year running the offense. That is a real floor.
- New defensive coordinator, and a secondary that almost left. Will Muschamp takes over a defense SP+ projects tenth in the country. Kobe Black, Warren Roberson and Derek Williams Jr. all entered the portal and then withdrew after agreeing revenue-sharing terms. Texas kept the group, edge Colin Simmons and safety Jelani McDonald lead the returners, and Muschamp added linebackers Rasheed Biles from Pittsburgh and Justin Cryer from Florida State plus Rutgers corner Bo Mascoe. It still changes hands to a new voice in a year with no margin.
- The line in front of Manning is three-fifths familiar. Texas gave up 23 sacks last season and brings back three starters: left tackle Trevor Goosby on the blind side, center Connor Robertson, and Brandon Baker sliding inside from right tackle to guard. Connor Stroh left for Kansas, DJ Campbell went to the draft and Cole Hutson graduated, so Laurence Seymore III, Melvin Siani and Paris Patterson Jr. came through the portal to fill the holes. A new receiving room behind a line with two new starters is where October gets decided.
- Both specialists are new. Kicker Gianni Spetic arrives from Memphis, where he went 14 of 17 on field goals and perfect on 49 extra points, and punter Mac Chiumento comes from Florida State at 44 yards a punt. Texas also hired a new special teams assistant. On a schedule where five of the seven hard games are away from Austin, a made 42-yarder on the road is the whole bet some weeks.
- The room behind it all is stocked. Texas signed 23 in the class of 2026 with three five-stars, including quarterback Dia Bell and Tyler Atkinson, the No. 2-ranked linebacker in the class. None of them swings a 9.5 this fall. They are why the program’s floor holds no matter what this particular schedule does to this particular season.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 9.5, with the Under at -140 and the Over at +115.
Final preseason SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, has Texas sixth overall, and that is the honest counterweight to everything below. This is not an argument that Texas is bad.
It is an argument about what this slate does to a win total. SP+ projects 8.2 wins from it. I adjust every projection for the rating’s market bias, which puts Texas at about 8.35 against a line of 9.5, more than a full win under the number. The books lean the same way, which is why the Under costs -140. I think the lean still is not steep enough.
Sort the twelve games. Texas State and UTSA are two you can bank. Florida, Mississippi State and Arkansas are three more, and helpfully all three are in Austin. That is five.
Which means the Over needs Texas to win five of the other seven, and the other seven are Ohio State, a trip to Tennessee, Oklahoma in Dallas, Ole Miss, a trip to Missouri, a trip to LSU and a trip to Texas A&M on the Friday after Thanksgiving. The Under needs Texas to lose three of twelve.
Five of those seven are away from home. Texas won nine regular-season games last year and it did not face six top-twenty opponents doing it.
The other thing worth saying plainly: Texas opened last season ranked first in the country, lost to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, and missed the playoff for the first time since 2022. The talent was never the problem. The schedule and the margins were.
Take the Under at -140.
SEC Picture
SP+ has Texas sixth nationally and second in its own conference behind Georgia. That sounds like a team that should clear nine and a half wins, and it would be, in most leagues.
Texas plays nine SEC games and six of those opponents are ranked inside the SP+ top twenty. The Longhorns are good enough to be favored in a majority of them. They are not good enough to be favored in all of them, and ten wins requires very close to that.
I am not quoting you a playoff or conference price on Texas, because I have not confirmed one at a book I can point you to. When I have, it will appear here with the book named.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 9.5 wins (-140): The play. The Over needs five wins from a seven-game set that includes the preseason number one and four true road trips, and the adjusted projection sits more than a win below the number. It does not depend on Texas being disappointing.
- Over 9.5 wins (+115): The fair counterargument. Arch Manning is a genuine star in year two, SP+ says sixth in the country, seven of the twelve games are in Austin, and Texas has won ten or more three seasons running counting bowls. If Coleman settles the receiving room quickly this ages badly.
- SEC winner: Watch list, no price quoted. Texas would have to come through Georgia and win at least two of the Texas A&M, LSU and Oklahoma group.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-4: Texas State opens it at Darrell K Royal on September 5, then Ohio State comes to Austin on September 12, then UTSA, then a trip to Knoxville on September 26. The Longhorns could plausibly be 3-1 or 2-2 before October, and the difference between those two is most of this bet.
Weeks 5-8: The bye on October 3, then Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on October 10, then Florida and Ole Miss at home. Red River is a neutral-site game and always plays like a coin toss. Ole Miss on October 24 is the sort of home game a ten-win season cannot drop.
Weeks 9-11: Mississippi State at home, then back-to-back road trips to Missouri on November 7 and LSU on November 14. Two top-twenty teams in consecutive weeks, both away. This is where a nine-win season and an eleven-win season separate.
Weeks 12-13: Arkansas at home, then Texas A&M in College Station on the Friday after Thanksgiving. The Aggies rate ninth in SP+ and get the rivalry at home on a short week. If Texas needs this one to reach ten, the Under is in good shape.
Bottom Line
Six SEC opponents inside the top twenty, the preseason number one in week two, and less than half the receiving production back. The adjusted projection says 8.35 against a line of 9.5. Texas is a top-six team that has to win five of its seven hardest games, five of which are not in Austin. Take the Under at -140.
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