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Lane Kiffin goes back to Oxford with the better team. I’ll lay the number with LSU. Our numbers make this LSU by closer to a touchdown than a field goal.
The Matchup
- Kiffin is walking back into the building he left. He took the LSU job in November and brought Princewill Umanmielen, Ole Miss’s leading pass rusher, with him. This week Kiffin said the pressure is on the other sideline and raised safety concerns about the trip. Ole Miss won the last meeting 24-19 in Oxford a year ago.
- The LSU defense is the best unit in this game. It sacked Louisiana Tech seven times and scored on a 100-yard interception return by Jordan McRae. Umanmielen leads the country with five sacks. Ole Miss served him court papers on Tuesday over his old revenue-sharing contract, and nothing reported suggests it affects whether he plays.
- The LSU offense is good and careless. The Tigers put up 644 yards in a 51-10 win over Clemson. Against Louisiana Tech, Sam Leavitt threw for 344 yards and three interceptions in a game LSU turned over four times. Kiffin’s review: “We’re winning by 31 points and we’re really upset.”
- Ole Miss can score with anyone. The Rebels beat Louisville 41-38 on a field goal at the gun, then led Charlotte 27-0 at halftime. Trinidad Chambliss went 23 of 26 last week, and Kewan Lacy, who left the opener with a thigh injury, ran for 87 yards and is expected to play. Pete Golding is 2-0 in his first season as head coach.
The Number
SP+ has LSU eighth in the country and Ole Miss twentieth, 8.9 points apart. Take two and a half off for Oxford and the projection is LSU by 6.4. The board has LSU laying a field goal or a shade less, so our numbers sit between three and four points on LSU’s side, inside the four point range where we still trust them.
The market tested our side and came back. This opened at LSU by two and a half, went to three on Monday and sat there for three days, then returned to two and a half on Thursday, with the moneyline back where it opened. That is not the market moving toward us. It is the market settling on its first number, and our ratings still sit between three and four points on LSU’s side of it.
Why it is still a half play. This is the biggest game of the night on national television, and the most watched games are the ones the books price most carefully, so an edge here is more likely to be our mistake than theirs. Add four LSU turnovers last week and a hostile night in Oxford, and this is a confidence five, not a statement.
In-Game Bets
- If LSU has three sacks by halftime. Hold. That is the best unit on the field doing what it did last week.
- If Leavitt throws an interception on either of LSU’s first two drives. Get out. Turnovers are the one thing that has slowed this offense, and giving Ole Miss short fields is how a short road favorite loses.
- If Ole Miss leads at halftime and Lacy has 60 rushing yards. Get out. The Rebels are controlling the game the way LSU was supposed to.
Bottom Line
Lay the number with LSU at . Our ratings make it LSU by 6.4. The line went to three and came back, so the market is not doing our work for us. It is a marquee game priced by people paying close attention, so confidence five and a half play.
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