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Green Bay opened as a five and a half point favorite in New Jersey and the number has been falling all week. I want the Jets and the points, and Green Bay’s defensive injury report is most of the reason why.
The Matchup
- Green Bay’s opener was a beating. The Packers lost 39-22 at Minnesota on September 13, a seventeen point defeat in a division game they were favored to win. That is one result and one result is not a verdict, but it is the only football either of these teams has played.
- The Jets went to Nashville and won 23-10. New York was the lowest-rated roster on our season card at 3.9 projected wins, and it opened by winning a road game by thirteen. The board has been adjusting to that ever since.
- Five Green Bay defensive linemen are on the report. Lukas Van Ness (concussion), Javon Hargrave (knee and concussion), Devonte Wyatt (ankle) and Barryn Sorrell (foot) were limited, and Warren Brinson (calf) did not practice, per the team’s September 16 report. Guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele were limited on the other side of the ball.
- New York is not healthy either, and that matters to the size of this play. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin) and edge rusher Joseph Ossai (foot) did not practice, receiver Omar Cooper Jr. (ankle) and running back Kene Nwangwu (back) sat as well, and linebacker Jamien Sherwood (knee) was limited.
- Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium on FOX. Both teams are on normal rest.
The Number
Our season projections have Green Bay at 9.3 wins and the Jets at 3.9. Converted at the rate this week’s board actually pays for a projected win, one point apiece, and with three points for home field, that is Green Bay by 2.3 in New Jersey. The board asks three and a half. The disagreement is a point and two tenths, and it sits on the Jets.
The money is going the same way. This line opened at Packers minus five and a half and it is minus three and a half now. Our Week 1 review found that which way a line moved before kickoff separated our winners from our losers better than the size of any projected edge did, and this one has moved two points toward the side we want.
It is still a point and two tenths, so it is a half play. The Jets are the lowest-rated roster we published in August and one road win does not rebuild that. The case here is the price and the injury report, not the team, and the card says so.
In-Game Bets
- If Van Ness and Hargrave are both inactive. The play gets better, not worse. The front we are betting against would be down two starters against a line that is itself banged up.
- If New York falls behind by ten in the first half. Leave it. A team that projects at four wins does not come back from ten against a healthy Green Bay offense, and the middle of this game is where three and a half stops mattering.
- If it is a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Do nothing. You already have the right side of a field goal and the number is doing its job.
In-Game Parlay
The same read in three legs. Green Bay’s front is the least healthy group on the field, so the Jets side comes with the two players who carried the win in Tennessee: Breece Hall ran 22 times for 102 yards and a touchdown, and Garrett Wilson caught six passes for 79 yards. Every leg needs the same afternoon to happen, so this is one position, sized as a half play, not three bets.
The angleIf the Green Bay front is as banged up as the report says, the Jets run the ball, keep it close and get Wilson his targets.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Bottom Line
New York Jets plus the points at is a half play. Our numbers make it Green Bay by 2.3 against a three and a half point line, the market has come two points our way since it opened, and Green Bay’s defensive front is the least healthy group on either roster. Small play, clear reason.
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