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I’ll take New Orleans laying two and a half at the Superdome on Monday night. The numbers make the Saints about a three-point favorite at home, which is right on top of this line, so the edge is thin. I like the Saints here, but it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Michael Penix Jr. changed Atlanta overnight. The Falcons scored 16 points in two games with Cooper Rush, losing at Pittsburgh and 34-3 at home to Carolina. Penix came back from last year’s torn ACL and they won 35-14 at Green Bay. He was 18-for-25 for 256 yards, Bijan Robinson ran for 194 and Drake London caught nine for 194.
- Tyler Shough keeps putting up numbers. The Saints quarterback threw four touchdowns against the Raiders, all to tight ends. But New Orleans turned it over four times in the fourth quarter and lost 35-27. They lost 31-30 in overtime at Detroit and won 24-17 at Baltimore.
- Atlanta stops the run. The Falcons are allowing 47.7 rushing yards a game, the fewest in the league, which pushes the Saints toward Shough’s arm. New Orleans linebacker Pete Werner left Sunday’s game with a neck injury.
- Atlanta has the rest. The Falcons last played Thursday, September 24, so they get 11 days. The Saints get eight. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN.
The Number
Using the adjusted projections from our previews, Atlanta comes in at 6.7 wins and New Orleans at 6.6. One point per projected win and three for home field makes it New Orleans by 2.9. The board has the Saints by two and a half. That’s 0.4 points on New Orleans, well under our two-point line. Anything under two is a lean.
The line has moved half a point the other way. It opened at Saints minus three and it’s two and a half now. That’s the market giving Atlanta a little credit for the Penix game, and I don’t blame it.
Here’s the honest version. Our numbers don’t know Atlanta’s offense looks completely different with Penix. They also don’t know the Saints lost Sunday by turning it over four times in one quarter, which doesn’t usually repeat. Those two pull in opposite directions. The numbers still lean New Orleans at home, so that’s the pick. Saints minus two and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Bijan has 60 rushing yards at halftime. Leave it. That’s the Green Bay game happening again, and the Saints aren’t built to chase it.
- If the Saints are within three at halftime and Shough hasn’t turned it over. Do nothing. That’s the case working.
- If Penix throws an early interception. Look at New Orleans on the live number. It’s his second start back, and the Superdome on a Monday night isn’t Green Bay.
Bottom Line
Take New Orleans minus two and a half at . Lean. The numbers have the Saints by about three at home and the board has them by two and a half, so the edge is small. Penix’s return is the risk and the line has moved half a point toward Atlanta, so it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If the Saints cover against the best run defense in the league, they’re doing it through the air, with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson catching most of it. Atlanta has given up 604 yards to wide receivers in three games. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleThe Saints cover by throwing on Atlanta, since the Falcons stop the run better than anyone.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted Thursday at 4:17 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Four bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He is seeing about 12 targets a game, and wide receivers have run wild on Atlanta.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 182, 86 and 107 yards
- MatchupAtlanta ranks 29th against the pass, and receivers have 604 yards on it in three games
He has gone over 50 every week, and with Jordyn Tyson on injured reserve there are more targets to go around.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 54, 66 and 53 yards
- MatchupAtlanta allows 263 passing yards a game, 29th
He gets 9 to 11 carries a week as Atlanta’s second back, and the Saints can’t stop the run.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 31, 51 and 50 yards
- MatchupNew Orleans allows 128.7 rushing yards a game, 27th, at 4.7 a carry
He has scored in two of three games, three touchdowns in all, against a defense that can’t cover.
- TrendScored in 2 of 3
- MatchupAtlanta ranks 29th against the pass
Prices checked Thursday at 4:17 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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