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I’ll take Green Bay laying three and a half in Tampa, and I’m going against my own season numbers to do it. Those numbers were built with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. He’s out with a dislocated thumb, and an undrafted rookie is making his first start. I like the Packers here, but it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Tampa Bay is 0-3 and now without its quarterback. The Buccaneers lost 33-27 to Cincinnati, 23-19 at home to Cleveland, and 23-16 to Minnesota. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb against the Vikings and is expected to miss about three weeks.
- Jalon Daniels gets the start. The undrafted rookie from Kansas made the roster as Mayfield’s backup. He came in on Sunday, went 0-for-3, and threw the interception that ended the game.
- Green Bay is 1-2 and coming off a bad one. The Packers lost 39-22 to Minnesota, won 20-17 in overtime at the Jets, then got handled 35-14 at home by Atlanta on a Thursday night. They’ve had ten days to get over it.
- Micah Parsons still isn’t back. He won’t practice this week and can’t return until the Week 5 game against Chicago at the earliest, so Green Bay rushes the rookie without its best defender. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on FOX at Raymond James Stadium.
The Number
Our preview had Green Bay at 9.3 wins and Tampa at 7.2 once you take out last year’s turnover luck, which makes this Tampa by about a point at home. The board has Green Bay by three and a half. That’s 4.4 points on the Buccaneers, over our four-point warning line, and usually a warning like that means the numbers are missing something.
This time we know exactly what they’re missing. Tampa’s 7.2 was built with Mayfield under center. Take him out and put in a rookie who’s thrown three passes in the NFL, and the number stops meaning much. Our rules let us override the numbers for a starter hurt the same week in a game inside ten points, and this is the textbook case. The market already did the math: this game was Tampa by a point and a half on the early board, and it’s Green Bay by three and a half now.
That’s also why it’s only a lean. A five-point move has already priced most of the injury, and the Packers haven’t earned a lot of trust. They’re 1-2, the pass rush is still waiting on Parsons, and they just gave up 35 at home. I’d rather have Jordan Love against a rookie’s first start than the other way around. Green Bay minus three and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Daniels completes his first five passes. Leave it. That’s the version of this game where the rookie is better than advertised, and chasing a lean against it is how you lose twice.
- If Green Bay leads by 10 at halftime. Do nothing. Tampa has lost three straight close enough to be dangerous late, and a lean doesn’t need a second bet.
- If Tampa leads at halftime. Look at Green Bay on the live number. A rookie in his first start rarely holds a lead for 30 minutes against a team that’s seen his tape at halftime.
Bottom Line
Take Green Bay minus three and a half at . Lean. Our season numbers like Tampa, but they were built with Mayfield, and he’s out. An undrafted rookie making his first start is exactly the kind of same-week injury our rules let us override for. The line has already moved five points, so there’s not much left, and it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If Green Bay covers, it’s most likely because Love is throwing a lot against the second-best run defense in the league, and his two most-targeted receivers are getting the ball. With Jayden Reed out for the year, Matthew Golden and Christian Watson split what’s left. Every leg needs the same afternoon, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleGreen Bay covers through the air because it can’t run on Tampa Bay, and Golden and Watson get the targets.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted Thursday at 4:17 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Four bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He has scored in every game this year, and with Jayden Reed out for the season there are even more targets coming his way.
- TrendScored in 3 of 3, 4 touchdowns in all
- MatchupHe leads Green Bay with 29 targets, and Tampa Bay allows 26.3 points a game, 23rd in the league
Tampa Bay has the second-best run defense in the league, so Green Bay has to throw, and Golden has been over this every week.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 95, 58 and 100 yards
- MatchupTampa Bay allows 76 rushing yards a game, 2nd fewest, and Green Bay has thrown 42, 29 and 53 times
He has thrown exactly two touchdowns in every game, and Green Bay can’t finish drives on the ground.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 2, 2 and 2
- MatchupTampa Bay allows 26.3 points a game, 23rd. Its pass defense has only given up four touchdown passes, which is why this pays plus money
He was the third back on the field last week, and he runs into the second-best run defense in the league.
- TrendUnder in 2 of 3: 37, 20 and 11 yards on 13, 6 and 4 carries
- MatchupTampa Bay allows 76 rushing yards a game, 2nd fewest, and Lloyd played 15 snaps in Week 3 behind Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson
Prices checked Thursday at 4:17 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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