SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
I lean Iowa and the five and a half in Ann Arbor, but I’m not betting it. The numbers call this game dead even, and when my numbers disagree with the board by this much, the board has usually been right.
The Matchup
- Iowa is 3-0, and it hasn’t been pretty. The Hawkeyes beat Iowa State 16-13 on a field goal with 15 seconds left in Week 2, then beat Northern Iowa 55-0 last week. Hank Brown is now the starter by himself on the depth chart, and this is his first start on the road.
- Michigan is 3-0 too. The Wolverines beat Oklahoma 17-10 in Week 2, when Bryce Underwood ran for 87 yards and scored the first touchdown, and then beat UTEP 52-17. Kyle Whittingham is in his first season in Ann Arbor, and his defense held Oklahoma to ten.
- Both backfields are banged up. Iowa running back Kamari Moulton is off the depth chart, and two Iowa tight ends are uncertain. Michigan running back Jordan Marshall is questionable, and right tackle Andrew Sprague has no timeline.
- Both defenses rate in the top 15 in the country. Our Iowa preview had a defense that lost almost everyone and still projected 16th. So far, it’s held up. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on CBS.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 3, have Iowa at 17.3 and Michigan at 15.1. Give Michigan two and a half points for playing at home and that’s Michigan by 0.3. The board asks five and a half. That’s 5.2 points on Iowa, the biggest gap among our featured games this week.
Split it by side of the ball and the ratings see two teams built the same way. The offenses rate within half a point of each other, the defenses within a point, and the projection lands around 23 apiece. On paper this is a coin flip decided by a field goal, which is why five and a half looks like so much.
That’s exactly the problem. Our rule says anything over four points is a warning, not a reason. Last weekend, the six biggest disagreements between our numbers and the board, college and NFL combined, went 0-6. When the numbers are this far from the market, the market usually knows something the numbers don’t. Here it might be two defenses, two banged-up running games, and a road quarterback the ratings haven’t seen on the road.
The line isn’t helping either. It opened at Michigan by four and a half on Sunday, touched four, and it’s five and a half now. That’s a point toward Michigan, the other way from us. A big gap plus a line moving against it is the exact setup that lost for us last week. So it’s a lean, confidence one, no stake.
In-Game Bets
- If Iowa is within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Look at the Iowa moneyline. Close and low-scoring is how Iowa wins games, and the price will be long.
- If Michigan leads by 14 at halftime. Leave it. Iowa isn’t built to come back from two scores against a defense this good.
- If Brown turns it over twice early. Leave it. The first road start is the risk, and that’s the risk showing up.
Bottom Line
Iowa plus five and a half at is a lean, no stake. The numbers make it even, but the gap is over our warning line, and the line has moved a point the other way since Sunday. I’d watch this one. I’m not betting it. If the line drifts back to four by Saturday morning, that’s the market coming toward us, and I’ll say so.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Daily Slate
Sign up for daily picks.
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.