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I lean Florida laying three and a half at home against the No. 4 team in the country, but I’m not betting it. The numbers like the Gators by a little more than the board does, and a little isn’t enough.
The Matchup
- Ole Miss keeps beating good teams. The Rebels are 3-0 and just beat LSU 32-24, with Trinidad Chambliss running in the go-ahead score late. ESPN notes it’s the first season Ole Miss has beaten two top-10 teams in its first three games.
- This is a new Ole Miss. Our preview flagged the turnover: Lane Kiffin left for LSU, first-year coach Pete Golding took over, and five of the top six receivers are gone. Chambliss is the constant. Running back Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury.
- Florida can run the ball. The Gators are 3-0 after beating Auburn 44-39, when Jadan Baugh ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Philo is healthy at quarterback, and receiver Eric Singleton Jr. is a game-time decision.
- The defenses are not close. The current ratings have Florida’s defense a little more than four points better than Ole Miss’s, and that’s most of the gap in this game. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on ABC in Gainesville.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 3, have Florida at 17.8 and Ole Miss at 15.6. Give Florida two and a half points for playing at home and that’s Florida by 4.7. The board asks three and a half. That’s 1.2 points on Florida, under our two-point line. Anything under two is a lean, not a play.
The line is moving our way, at least. It was Florida by a point and a half before Week 3, opened at two and a half on Sunday, and it’s three and a half now. That’s two points toward the Gators in a week, which is the kind of movement that went 2-1 for us last weekend. But the market has already taken most of the value. At two and a half this would have cleared our bar. At three and a half it doesn’t.
It’s also a game where the ranking and the numbers don’t agree. Ole Miss is fourth in the poll and 20th in the ratings, because it has beaten good teams without dominating them. The poll gives credit for wins. The ratings give credit for margins. Florida has the better margins, and it’s the team at home.
Put the two sides of the ball together and the ratings land somewhere around Florida 29, Ole Miss 25. That’s a four-point game with the favorite at home, and the board is asking three and a half. If you already have Florida at two and a half from earlier in the week, you have the better of it. If you don’t, there’s no rush to chase.
In-Game Bets
- If Ole Miss leads at halftime. Look at Florida on the live number. Florida’s defense is the better one, and it has a full half to make that count.
- If Chambliss gets hurt. Look at Florida. He’s the one piece of this Ole Miss offense that came back from last year.
- If Florida leads by 14. Leave it. A two-score lead against a team that already came back on LSU is not a place to add.
Bottom Line
Florida minus three and a half at is a lean, no stake. The numbers like Florida by almost five, and the line has moved two points toward the Gators this week. That movement already took the value, so I’d watch this one and not bet it.
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