SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
I lean Penn State laying two and a half at Northwestern on Friday night, and I want to be upfront about why it’s only a lean. Our numbers make Penn State a seven-point favorite. The board says two and a half. When we disagree with the market by that much, the market usually knows something our numbers don’t, and this week I can tell you exactly what it is.
The Matchup
- Penn State just blew a 17-0 lead. The Nittany Lions beat Marshall, Temple and Buffalo by a combined 127-22, then lost 24-20 at home to Wisconsin and fell out of the rankings. Rocco Becht went 12-for-29 for 114 yards and an interception in that one. Reports out of State College say he isn’t hurt, it was just a bad day.
- Penn State is missing a lot. Top receiver Koby Howard is out for an extended period. Four defensive ends are listed out, along with two corners, a starting lineman and a tight end. Top corner Daryus Dixson is questionable.
- Northwestern keeps covering. The Wildcats are 2-1 and a perfect 3-0 against the spread. They beat Colorado 41-7 and lost only 29-23 at Indiana as a 20-and-a-half-point underdog. Aidan Chiles hasn’t thrown an interception. Northwestern is banged up too, with 12 players listed out, most of them on defense.
- It’s a big night in Evanston. This is the first game in the new Ryan Field, and Northwestern won last year’s meeting 22-21. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET on FOX.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 4, have Penn State almost ten points better than Northwestern on a neutral field. Give Northwestern two and a half for playing at home and that’s Penn State by 7.1. The board has Penn State by two and a half at one book and three at another. That’s 4.6 points on Penn State, over our four-point warning line.
Here’s what that warning means. The ratings only see scores and plays. They know Penn State lost to Wisconsin, but they don’t know the Nittany Lions will be without their best receiver and four defensive ends on Friday. The market does. Depending on the book, this line opened somewhere between five and a half and seven, and it’s been falling toward Northwestern ever since. That’s the market taking the injuries out of Penn State’s number, and it’s moved against us all week.
So why still Penn State? Because Northwestern’s injury list is just as long, and the ratings still see a big gap in talent. Becht was good for three weeks before one bad afternoon. I like Penn State here, but a warning-level gap with the line moving the other way is exactly the spot our rules say not to bet. Penn State minus two and a half, lean, no stake, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Becht completes his first five passes. Do nothing. That’s the case working, and a lean doesn’t need a second ticket.
- If Northwestern leads at halftime. Leave it. That’s the injuries the market saw, showing up on the field.
- If Penn State leads by a touchdown in the third quarter. Do nothing. Northwestern has covered every game this year, including at Indiana as a 20-and-a-half-point underdog.
Bottom Line
Take Penn State minus two and a half at . Lean. The numbers make Penn State a seven-point favorite and the board says two and a half, which is over our warning line. The market has priced in Penn State’s injuries, including its top receiver and four defensive ends, and the line has moved against us all week. I like the Nittany Lions, but not enough to stake it.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Daily Slate
Sign up for daily picks.
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.