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Texas lost to OU last week, and you know the mood in Austin. Somebody’s paying for that, and I think it’s the Gators. The Longhorns have the second-best defense in the country, Florida scored 17 and 19 in its last two, and the current ratings make Texas closer to a 16-point favorite at DKR. Hook ’em. I’m laying the eleven and a half.
The Matchup
- Texas is coming off a loss. The Longhorns are 4-1 after a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma last week. The defense is the strength, second in the current ratings and giving up 16 a game. Arch Manning has 1,122 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, two of them against the Sooners.
- Florida has dropped two straight. The Gators are 4-2. They beat Ole Miss 52-28, then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. They can run, at 200 yards a game, but the defense gives up 29 a game and rates 58th.
- The Gators won last year’s meeting. Florida beat Texas 29-21 in Gainesville last October.
- Noon in Austin. Kickoff is 12:00 PM ET on ABC.
The Number
The current ratings have Texas about 13 points better on a neutral field, and two and a half points of home field makes it nearly 16. The board has Texas by eleven and a half. That’s a gap of a little over four points.
The risk is the Texas offense. The Longhorns have scored more than 30 just once this season, against Texas State, and big spreads need points. But Florida’s offense has managed 17 and 19 in its last two games, and Texas allows 16. If the defense does its job, the offense only needs four touchdowns. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Manning throws an early interception. Don’t chase Florida live. The case is the Texas defense, not the offense.
- If Texas leads by 14 at halftime. Hold. Florida has scored 19 or fewer in each of its last two games.
- If Florida is within a touchdown late. Leave it. A lean doesn’t need a second bet.
Bottom Line
Take Texas minus eleven and a half at . Lean. The current ratings make Texas almost a 16-point favorite at home, and the board asks eleven and a half. The Texas offense is why it’s only a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Texas covers, it’s most likely with its defense. Texas games have gone under 51.5 in all three of its last three, and Florida has stayed under 19.5 points in two of its last three. Every leg needs the same afternoon, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleTexas wins it with defense in a low-scoring game.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 4:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick.
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