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Third Saturday in October, Rocky Top on a loop, and Bama’s laying more than a touchdown in Neyland? I’m taking the Vols and the hook. The Tide will likely be without their best receiver, Tennessee’s last three games all finished under 42 total points, and the current ratings make this about a four-point game. Tennessee wants a slugfest, and seven and a half is a lot of cushion in a slugfest. Vols plus the points.
The Matchup
- Alabama lost a close one last week. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 after a 20-17 home loss to Georgia. They score 44 a game, but they’ll likely be without their top receiver, Ryan Coleman-Williams, who has 23 catches for 415 yards and four touchdowns. Kalen DeBoer called him doubtful with a concussion and a knee injury. Keelon Russell went 16 of 30 for 185 yards against Georgia.
- Tennessee wins with defense and the run. The Volunteers are 5-1. They lost 20-17 to Texas and won 24-17 at Arkansas. They run for 228 yards a game and give up 15.5 points, and their last three games finished with 37, 38 and 41 total points.
- Tennessee’s quarterback is a question. Josh Heupel hasn’t named a starter. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards with two interceptions in his first start at Arkansas, and Faizon Brandon, who started the first five games, has been limited with a shoulder injury.
- Neyland at 3:30. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET in Knoxville.
The Number
The current ratings have Alabama about six points better on a neutral field. Take two and a half for Tennessee’s home field, and the Tide are favored by about four. The board has Alabama by seven and a half, so the gap is a little under four points on Tennessee.
The risk is Tennessee’s offense. A team without a settled quarterback can’t afford to fall behind early. But Tennessee’s games have been low scoring, Alabama is missing its best receiver, and seven and a half is a lot to give in a rivalry game in Knoxville. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Alabama leads by 10 at halftime. Hold. Tennessee has held five of its six opponents to 20 points or fewer.
- If Tennessee changes quarterbacks mid-game. That’s the risk we flagged. Don’t add to it.
- If it’s within a field goal in the fourth. Leave it. A lean doesn’t need a second bet.
Bottom Line
Take Tennessee plus seven and a half at . Lean. The current ratings make Alabama about a four-point favorite in Knoxville, and the board asks seven and a half. Tennessee’s quarterback question is why it’s only a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Tennessee covers, it’s most likely a low-scoring game. Tennessee’s last three games all went under 50.5, and Tennessee has held all three of its last opponents under 30.5 points. Every leg needs the same afternoon, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleTennessee keeps it close and low scoring.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 4:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick.
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