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Linus Ullmark has won 7 of his 8 starts and stopped 94.5% of the shots he’s faced. He’s not playing tonight. Samuel Ersson is, and Ersson has one win and an 86.6% save rate. That’s the whole Ottawa goaltending story in two sentences, and the line in Buffalo hasn’t budged. Sabres.
The Matchup
- Buffalo’s road trip. The Sabres just swept California: 2-0 in San Jose, 7-6 in Anaheim, 3-2 in Los Angeles. They’ve won three straight and come home to KeyBank Center, where they’ve won three of six. Tage Thompson has 10 goals and 63 shots, the most on either team by a mile.
- Ottawa’s trip went the other way. The Senators have won 9 of 16, but they lost 6-3 in Anaheim on Sunday and have won only 4 of 9 on the road. Tim Stützle has 9 goals and 12 assists, and Drake Batherson 9 and 9.
- Rest. Ottawa last played Sunday. Buffalo hasn’t played since Saturday’s win in Los Angeles.
- Puck drop. 7:30 PM ET at KeyBank Center.
The Goalies
Samuel Ersson is confirmed for Ottawa. He’s started four games, won one, and stopped 86.6% of shots. Ullmark, the starter, gets the night off.
Colten Ellis is likely for Buffalo. He’s won 3 of his 5 starts and stopped 88.0% of shots.
The Number
Strip the margin out and the market makes Buffalo about a 53% favorite, the same number it had before Ottawa named its goalie. Our numbers, with Ersson in net instead of Ullmark, have the Sabres near 57%. The edge is the goalie swap the line hasn’t caught up to, and that’s why this one is Featured.
The honest case against: Ellis isn’t a sure thing either, and Ottawa’s top line can beat anybody’s backup. It’s a Featured pick, and win or lose, it lands on the receipts page.
Bottom Line
Take the Sabres on the moneyline at . Featured. Hot team, home ice, and the other guy’s backup in net. Let’s go Buffalo.
Lines as of Wednesday morning. Ersson is confirmed; check Buffalo’s goalie before puck drop.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. If Buffalo wins, Ottawa’s top guys didn’t get loose, and Stützle doesn’t shoot much even on good nights. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
The angleBuffalo wins and keeps Stützle quiet.
Build it at BetMGM →BetMGM prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Confirm lines before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Prop for This Game
We stick to shots on goal for hockey props, and we start from the under. It has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. It’s a Game Pick prop, a separate bet from our pick, so keep it small.
He’s a passer first: 12 assists to 9 goals.
- Trend2 shots or fewer in 12 of 16 games
- Matchup2.1 shots a game, at about 20 to 23 minutes a night
Prices checked Wednesday morning. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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