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Tampa Bay has won 11 of 17, and Brayden Point being on injured reserve hasn’t slowed it down. Buffalo can’t kill a penalty to save its life. And the Bolts are only laying -128? Give me Tampa.
The Matchup
- Tampa can score. The Lightning put up almost 3.7 goals a game. Nikita Kucherov has 22 points, 17 of them assists, and Jake Guentzel has 10 goals. They’ve won three of their last five even with Point on injured reserve.
- Buffalo’s special teams are a problem. The Sabres kill only 71.2% of penalties and score on just 14.3% of their own power plays. They give up about 3.3 goals a game and have won four of nine at home.
- Buffalo isn’t dead. Tage Thompson has 10 goals and 19 points, and the Sabres won back-to-back games in Anaheim and Los Angeles on their recent road trip. They’re coming off a 4-1 home loss to Vegas.
- Puck drop. 7:00 PM ET at KeyBank Center, on TNT and truTV. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected in net for Tampa, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen expected for Buffalo and Alex Lyon on injured reserve. Neither was confirmed Wednesday morning.
The Number
Our numbers have the Lightning winning about 61% of the time. The price says closer to 54%. That’s real daylight. What scares me: Tampa’s own penalty kill stops only 72.9% of power plays, and if this turns into a parade to the box, Thompson gets his looks and Buffalo hangs around.
Bottom Line
Take the Lightning on the moneyline at . The better team at a short price. It lands on the receipts page win or lose. Confirm the starting goalies before puck drop. Go Bolts.
The angleTwo leaky penalty kills, and Tampa's offense does the rest.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Est. price: about +230 at these numbers (the legs multiplied). Your book sets the real price. Parlays aren’t tracked on the receipts page.
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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.