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Revenge game. Austin Simmons left Oxford for Mizzou, and Saturday he walks back past the Grove in the other team’s colors. Love it. The bet, though, is the Mizzou defense, which has given up more than 21 points exactly once this year, in a game the current ratings call almost dead even. Ole Miss is going to score, Hotty Toddy and all. Mizzou just has to stay inside five and a half. I’m on the Tigers with the points.
The Matchup
- Missouri’s defense is the difference. The Tigers are 5-1 and give up 17.7 points a game, and the current ratings have their defense 10th. They beat Florida 45-17 and Texas A&M 27-6. Their only loss was 31-24 at Mississippi State.
- Austin Simmons faces his old team. Missouri’s quarterback transferred from Ole Miss last winter and won the job in the spring. He threw four touchdowns in his Missouri debut.
- Ole Miss scores, and gives it back. The Rebels are 4-1 and score 39 a game behind Trinidad Chambliss, with an offense rated sixth. The defense gives up 28 and rates 55th. Florida put 52 on them.
- Oxford at 3:30. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET.
The Number
The current ratings have Missouri about two points better on a neutral field. Give Ole Miss two and a half for home field, and the Rebels are favored by less than a point. The board has them by five and a half, so the gap is about five points on Missouri.
The case against is the Ole Miss offense, which can score on anybody. But Missouri has the better defense by a wide margin, and five and a half is a lot of room in a game the ratings call even. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Ole Miss scores on its first two drives. Don’t chase it. Missouri has given up more than 21 just once.
- If Missouri leads at halftime. Hold. The Ole Miss defense rates 55th, and Missouri can run.
- If it’s within a field goal late. Leave it. A lean doesn’t need a second bet.
Bottom Line
Take Missouri plus five and a half at . Lean. The current ratings make this a near coin flip in Oxford, and the board gives Missouri five and a half. Ole Miss’s offense is why it’s only a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Missouri covers, it’s most likely because its defense slows Ole Miss down. Missouri has held all three of its last opponents under 32.5 points, and two of Missouri’s last three games went under 58.5. Every leg needs the same afternoon, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleMissouri's defense holds Ole Miss under its number.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 4:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick.
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