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The Rays won 98 games this year, and they’re down 2-1 to a team that won 85. Somebody in that lineup is due. I’m on Tampa Bay in Game 4 at Progressive Field. Nick Martinez gets the ball, Cleveland hadn’t named a starter at posting, and the price is a coin flip.
The Matchup
- Cleveland’s pitching has owned the series. The Guardians won Game 1, 7-3, at the Trop, lost Game 2, 3-1, and took Game 3, 3-2, on Thursday afternoon. Gavin Williams struck out nine in five innings, and the bullpen threw four scoreless.
- The Rays’ bats are asleep. Tampa Bay has scored eight runs in three games. Junior Caminero is 2 for 11 and Jonathan Aranda is 0 for 10.
- The full season says Tampa Bay. The Rays went 98-64 and outscored teams by 86 runs. Cleveland went 85-77, plus 11, and played .506 ball at home (41-40), but it finished the regular season 8-2.
- First pitch. 8:00 PM ET Friday at Progressive Field, on TBS and truTV.
The Pitching
Nick Martinez went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 31 starts. He doesn’t miss many bats, with 109 strikeouts in 180 innings, but he doesn’t walk anybody either, just 26 all year. His one playoff start lasted three and two-thirds innings.
Cleveland hadn’t announced a starter when this went up. The Guardians have used only three starters this postseason: Williams, Parker Messick and Foster Griffin, who started Game 1 on Monday. If it’s a bullpen night, it’s a bullpen that’s been lights out in this series.
The Number
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. They make the Rays a small favorite, and the price, with the margin taken out, has it close to even. That’s a thin gap, but it’s on the better team with the starter we actually know.
The honest case against: Cleveland’s arms have held this lineup to under three runs a game, and the Guardians get to finish the series at home. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Rays on the moneyline at . Lean. Ninety-eight wins, a known starter, and a coin-flip price. Rays Up.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. If the Rays even the series, it’s most likely because Martinez gets through the order a couple of times and keeps Cleveland quiet. Three strikeouts is a fair ask if he’s out there long enough to win it. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not two bets.
The angleMartinez goes deep enough to rack up strikeouts and the Rays even the series.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 2:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
He’s been on base all series, and he hits right-handers a lot better than lefties.
- Trend2 of 3 this series: 1, 1 and 0 hits
- Matchup.274 average and .361 on-base against right-handed pitching this season; Nick Martinez throws right-handed
He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but three gets you there, and he’s hit it in four of his last five.
- Trend4 of his last 5 starts: 3, 3, 7, 1 and 3 strikeouts
- MatchupThe risk is a short night: he went 3 2/3 innings in his only playoff start, and Cleveland struck out less than all but four teams this season
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