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Kansas City beat Denver by three touchdowns on Monday night, and the number came down anyway. Six is a big number between two teams our season card separates by two tenths of a win, so I will take the points, quietly.
The Matchup
- Kansas City opened with a 31-10 win over Denver on September 14. Patrick Mahomes was making his first start back from a knee injury and was a full participant in practice on the knee again this week, per the club’s September 17 report.
- Indianapolis was beaten 41-23 at home by Baltimore. Forty-one points allowed in a home opener is the kind of result that moves a number, and the number did not move. That is the whole reason this game is on our card.
- Kansas City is missing two starters. Left tackle Josh Simmons (back) and safety Chamarri Conner (knee) did not practice, and defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf) was limited both days.
- The Colts are short at receiver. Alec Pierce (heel) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) did not practice, and running back D.J. Giddens (knee) sat as well. Anthony Richardson missed Wednesday with a groin injury and was a full participant on Thursday.
- Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Both teams are on normal rest, and the crowd is worth something real here in a way it is not everywhere.
The Number
Our season card has Indianapolis at 9.7 projected wins and Kansas City at 9.5. At this week’s conversion of one point per projected win, plus three for playing at Arrowhead, that is Kansas City by 2.9. The board says six. The gap of 3.1 points sits inside our own four point warning line, which is where we want a number to be.
Week 1 argues the other way and I am not hiding it. Kansas City won by 21, Indianapolis lost by 18, and a 39 point swing in one week is exactly the kind of evidence a preseason projection cannot see. Our card was built in August and one Sunday does not update it, but one Sunday does tell you which direction the market is walking.
What keeps it on the card is which way the number walked. Kansas City opened at six and a half and sits at six, a half point toward Indianapolis, after a three touchdown win on one side and a three touchdown loss on the other. That is the opposite of what a week like that should do to a line, and money moving to our side before kickoff is the one thing our own Week 1 review found that separated the picks we won from the picks we lost. A half play, confidence two, and the honest version is that this is a lean rather than a play.
In-Game Bets
- If Josh Simmons is inactive. Our side gets stronger. A rebuilt left side against DeForest Buckner is the one matchup that can keep this inside a touchdown.
- If Indianapolis trails by fourteen at halftime. Leave it alone. Kansas City at home with a lead is where six turns into seventeen.
- If the Colts are within one score entering the fourth. Do nothing and let the number work. You do not need a winner, you need six.
In-Game Parlay
Indianapolis is short at receiver this week, with Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin both missing practice, so the plan runs through Jonathan Taylor. He carried 19 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore, and Chris Jones was limited in practice on the other side. One read, one position, a half play.
The angleTwo receivers down means more Taylor, and a Kansas City front without a healthy Chris Jones is where he gets it.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Bottom Line
Indianapolis plus the points at is a half play and a small one. The numbers make it Kansas City by three, the board asks six, and that half point came off in our direction during a week of news that argued the other way. Week 1 says we are wrong. The market says we are not. That disagreement is what a confidence of two looks like.
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