SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
I’ll take Washington plus three and a half in London on Sunday morning. Our numbers land right on this line, so the hook over three is the tiebreaker, and so is the chance Jayden Daniels plays. I like the Commanders here, but it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Two 1-2 teams, a long way from home. The Colts lost 41-23 to Baltimore and 33-30 in overtime at Kansas City, then beat Houston 19-17. The Commanders lost 24-22 to Philadelphia and 37-20 at Dallas, then beat Seattle 33-31. It’s at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network, with Washington as the home team on paper only.
- Marcus Mariota is ready if he has to be. Daniels dislocated his elbow, and Mariota started against Seattle. He went 19-for-31 for 183 yards and three touchdowns and won. Daniels made the trip and is expected to practice this week, but nobody’s said he’ll play.
- The Colts can’t stop anybody. Indianapolis is giving up 417.3 yards a game, the most in the league. Daniel Jones is back from last year’s Achilles tear and starting, so the Colts’ problem is on the other side of the ball.
- Watch the Washington run game. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is Washington’s lead back, and a defense giving up over 400 yards a game is exactly who you want to lean on with a backup quarterback.
The Number
Our preview had the Colts at 9.7 wins off last year’s scoring. For Washington, the preview had two numbers: 6.2 wins off last year’s scoring, and a lot more than that with a healthy Daniels. He’s not healthy, so we use the 6.2. That number was built on a season where backups started ten games, which is the situation Washington is in right now. Neutral field, so no home points. That’s Colts by three and a half, and the board is Colts by three and a half. No gap at all.
The line hasn’t moved either. It opened at three and a half and it’s still there, even with the news that Daniels is practicing. So neither the numbers nor the market have a side.
When it’s dead even, I take the points, and the half point over three matters in the NFL. There’s also one thing only Washington gets: if Daniels plays, the Commanders are a lot better than our number, and you already have the ticket. If he doesn’t, you have Mariota against the worst yardage defense in the league. Washington plus three and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Daniels is active and starts. You’re holding the right ticket. Don’t add to it; a lean stays a lean.
- If Washington runs for 80 yards in the first half. Look at the Washington moneyline on the live number. That’s the Colts defense doing what it’s done all year.
- If the Colts lead by 10 at halftime. Leave it. Jones and Taylor at their best are more than a backup quarterback can chase.
Bottom Line
Take Washington plus three and a half at . Lean. Our numbers and the board both have the Colts by three and a half, so the hook is the edge, and Washington has the only upside in the game if Daniels plays. The Colts’ defense has been the worst in the league by yards, which helps whoever is at quarterback.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If Washington covers, it’s most likely because the Colts can’t cover the slot and Daniel Jones gives the ball away like he has every week. Stefon Diggs lives in the slot, and Jones has thrown an interception in all three games. Every leg needs the same morning, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleWashington covers by working Diggs in the slot and taking the ball away from Jones.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted Thursday at 4:17 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
Washington has given up touchdowns to tight ends more often than anyone, and Warren has scored in two of three games.
- TrendScored in 2 of 3, with his targets up every week: 5, 7 and 10
- MatchupWashington allows a touchdown on 25% of tight end targets, worst in the league, and Warren plays 87% of the snaps
He has thrown exactly one interception in every game this season.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: one pick each against Baltimore, Kansas City and Houston
- MatchupWashington has two interceptions so far, so this one is about Jones, who has turned it over every week
He plays most of his snaps in the slot, and no team has given up more slot yards than the Colts.
- Trend2 of 3 this season: 55, 47 and 33 yards
- MatchupThe Colts have allowed 315 yards to slot receivers, most in the league, and rank 30th against the pass. Washington names its starting quarterback Friday
Prices checked Thursday at 4:17 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Daily Slate
Sign up for daily picks.
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.