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I’ll take Denver and the points on Sunday night. The numbers like the Broncos at home, and the Rams will likely be without Puka Nacua. I like Denver here, but the gap is big enough to make me careful, so I’m not pounding the table.
The Matchup
- The Rams bounced back hard. The Rams lost 27-7 to San Francisco in Melbourne, then beat the Giants 28-6 on Monday night. Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns in that one, and Davante Adams caught eight passes for 195 yards and two scores.
- Denver found a way in Week 2. The Broncos lost 31-10 at Kansas City to open the year, then trailed Jacksonville 13-3 going into the fourth quarter and won 20-13. Jaylen Waddle caught eight balls for 138 yards.
- The Rams are banged up. Puka Nacua is listed as doubtful after missing practice all week, and Sean McVay said doubtful means more unlikely than likely. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve after knee surgery and can’t come back before Week 6. Tight end Colby Parkinson didn’t practice either. On the other side, Denver receiver Marvin Mims Jr. was back at practice after missing Week 2.
- Watch the Rams’ run game. The Rams are getting five yards a carry, and Denver is allowing 5.1, one of the worst marks in the league. Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on NBC at Empower Field.
The Number
Our season projections have the Rams at 12.3 wins and Denver at 11. At one point of spread per projected win and three for playing at home, that’s Denver by 1.7. The board has the Rams by two and a half, and a couple of shops are down to a point and a half. At two and a half, that’s 4.2 points on Denver, just over our four-point warning line.
The line has moved our way. It opened at Rams minus two and a half, and the Nacua news pushed some books down to one and a half. That’s the market leaning toward Denver, not away. But last weekend our six biggest gaps between our numbers and the board went 0-6, and a gap this size usually means our August number is missing something. For the Rams, that something might be a team that’s better than last year’s scoring said.
Our previews disagreed with the market on both of these teams. We had the Rams under 11.5 wins because they were plus-10 in turnovers last year and that doesn’t repeat, and we had Denver over 9.5 because a defense that ranked third in scoring kept its core. Two weeks in, neither case is proven. The Denver defense that carried our preview has given up 44 points in two games, and the Rams have already lost once by twenty. So it’s Denver, as a lean at confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Nacua is inactive and Denver is within a score at halftime. Look at the Denver moneyline. The Rams’ passing game gets a lot thinner without him, and Mile High gets loud in a close second half.
- If the Rams run for 100 yards in the first half. Leave it. That’s the one matchup that favors them, and it’s showing up.
- If Denver leads by 10 in the fourth quarter. Do nothing. It’s a lean, and chasing a live number late on a lean is how you turn a good read into a bad night.
Bottom Line
Take Denver plus two and a half at . Lean. The numbers like the Broncos at home, the line has moved our way on the Nacua news, and the Rams’ defense is without Garrett. But the gap is over our warning line, so it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
I like Denver to keep this inside a field goal or win it, and the way that happens is Bo Nix finding Jaylen Waddle down the field. If Nix clears his number, Waddle is probably the big reason why, and that’s the kind of night where the home dog hangs around. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleDenver hangs with the Rams by getting the ball to Waddle, and Nix's yardage climbs with him.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted September 25; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
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