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I’ll stay with the Brewers at plus money in Game 4, with a chance to close out the series in Los Angeles. Our numbers give Milwaukee a little better chance than the price does, whichever pitcher it starts. The gap is small, and Milwaukee hadn’t named its starter when this went up, so like every baseball pick here, it’s a lean.
The Matchup
Milwaukee leads the series three games to none. The Brewers won Game 3, 6-2, on Wednesday night. Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell hit back-to-back home runs off Blake Snell, Jackson Chourio homered too, and Robert Gasser threw five scoreless innings. Through three games the Brewers have beaten Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Snell.
The Dodgers are facing elimination, and the bats are the problem. Los Angeles has scored seven runs in three games. Freddie Freeman went hitless again in Game 3, and the Dodgers had four hits as a team.
First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Thursday at Dodger Stadium, on FS1. The bets are split almost evenly, a change from the four-in-five that backed the Dodgers on Wednesday.
The Pitching
Los Angeles starts Tyler Glasnow. He went 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts, with 98 strikeouts in 74 innings and a 0.95 WHIP. He has struck out ten or more in two of his last four starts, but he walked five in four and two thirds innings against Atlanta in the division series.
Milwaukee hadn’t announced its starter at posting time. The books list Dustin May, who went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA over 31 starts. His last three starts lasted two, three and three innings. Reports also point to rookie lefty Shane Drohan, 7-5 with a 4.19 ERA, who hasn’t started since September 24. Either way, expect a short start and plenty of Milwaukee’s bullpen.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. With May on the mound, they give Milwaukee about 43%. With Drohan, about 43.5%. The price, with the books’ margin taken out, says 41.5%. That’s a gap of one to two points on the Brewers, smaller than Wednesday’s.
The honest case against: Glasnow is the best pitcher in this game, and a team down three games to none at home is nobody’s idea of an easy out. But the Brewers have the better record and the hotter lineup, and they’re getting plus money. Small lean, Brewers.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at . Lean. Our numbers give Milwaukee a point or two more than the price does. Glasnow and the unannounced Milwaukee starter are why it’s only a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If the Brewers close it out, it’s most likely because their left-handed hitters keep getting on base against Glasnow and the top of the order scores. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleMilwaukee's lefties get on base against Glasnow and the top of the order cashes in.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 12:12 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He piles up strikeouts, with 98 in 74 innings this season, and Milwaukee swings and misses more than most.
- Trend2 of 3: 10, 11 and 5 strikeouts
- MatchupThe Brewers struck out 8.5 times a game this season, 11th most in baseball
He’s cleared this in every game of the series and does his best work against right-handers.
- Trend3 of 3: 3, 6 and 2
- Matchup.291 average, .391 on-base and .510 slugging against right-handed pitching; Glasnow throws right-handed
He has a hit in each of his last three games, including a home run off Snell on Wednesday.
- Trend3 of 3: 1, 1 and 1 hits
- Matchup.395 on-base and .468 slugging against right-handed pitching this season
Prices checked Thursday at 12:12 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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