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I’m taking Tennessee and the points at Neyland. The numbers have this game at barely more than a point, the line keeps sliding toward the Vols, and I’ll take four or better with the home team.
The Matchup
- Tennessee hasn’t been stopped yet. The Vols are 3-0 and have scored at least 42 in every game: 56 against Furman, 45 against Georgia Tech, 42 against Kennesaw State. True freshman Faizon Brandon won the job, and he’s working behind an offensive line that brought back all five starters.
- Texas has been winning ugly. The Longhorns are 3-0 and No. 1, but they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Ohio State 24-23, and Arch Manning went 16 of 32 in last week’s 30-6 win over UTSA. He’s completing 61.9 percent of his passes this year.
- The Texas defense is the best one Brandon has seen. Our preview projected Will Muschamp’s first Texas defense tenth in the country, and pass rusher Colin Simmons is listed probable after a lower-leg knock. Steve Sarkisian called pulling him last week precautionary.
- This is Brandon’s real test. Georgia Tech is the only opponent on Tennessee’s schedule with a pulse. Texas is a different animal, and it’s a noon kickoff in front of 100,000 people who will be on his side.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 3, have Texas at 24.1 and Tennessee at 20.2. Give Tennessee two and a half points for playing at home and that’s Texas by 1.4. The board asks four or four and a half, depending on the shop. That’s 2.6 to 3.1 points, and it sits on Tennessee. It’s the cleanest spot on our Saturday card: a real gap, under our four-point warning line, with the market moving our way.
The line is moving our way. It sat at Texas minus seven over the summer, opened this week at five and a half on Sunday, and it’s down to four or four and a half now, depending on the book. Last week the plays where the line moved toward us went 2-1 and the plays where it moved against us went 0-2. This one has moved at least a point toward the Vols since Sunday and two and a half or more since summer.
The risk is the schedule. Tennessee’s 42-point floor came against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State, and the ratings only know what they’ve seen. Texas has already beaten Ohio State. That’s why this is a half play at confidence four. The market got here before we did, so the gap is smaller than it was on Sunday, but the price, the ratings and the line are still pointing the same direction.
In-Game Bets
- If Texas scores first and leads by a touchdown in the first quarter. Look at Tennessee on the live number. You’ll get more than four, and a team that’s scored 42 every week doesn’t need long to answer.
- If Brandon throws two interceptions in the first half. Leave it. The case assumes the freshman holds up against the best defense he’s seen, and two picks says he isn’t.
- If Tennessee leads at halftime. Do nothing. You already have the Vols with four or better in your pocket. Don’t chase the moneyline on top of it.
Bottom Line
Tennessee plus four or better at is a half play, twelve fifty at our twenty-five dollar standard. The numbers make it Texas by about a point, the line has moved our way all week, and the Vols get the No. 1 team at home at noon. The schedule is the risk and the market already took some of the value, so it’s confidence four, but this is still the best spot on the Saturday card.
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