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I lean Atlanta tonight, but I’m not betting it. We liked the Falcons at six and a half. The market moved two points our way before we could get there, and at four and a half the edge is gone.
The Matchup
- Atlanta finally has its quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start of the season, with Tua Tagovailoa healthy behind him. The Falcons played the first two weeks without either one, and it showed in a 34-3 home loss to Carolina.
- Atlanta’s secondary just got thinner. Atlanta put top cornerback A.J. Terrell on IR Tuesday. That thins a secondary that was already the weaker side of this matchup.
- Green Bay is thin up front. Left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele are out, along with defensive tackle Warren Brinson and receiver Jayden Reed. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, and Micah Parsons still hasn’t been cleared to practice.
- The Packers are 1-1 and lucky to be. They lost 39-22 at Minnesota, then trailed the Jets 17-7 before winning 20-17 in overtime. Love took an elbow hit against the Jets but says it never affected his throwing.
The Number
Our season projections have Green Bay at 9.3 wins and Atlanta at 7.2. At half a point per projected win and three for home field, that makes it Green Bay by about 4.1. We liked this at six and a half. At four and a half the market took the edge. What’s left is four tenths of a point, and that isn’t a bet.
The line has moved from six and a half to four and a half since Penix was named the starter. Our number already assumed Atlanta would have a healthy quarterback, so the market didn’t find something we missed. It caught up to what we already had, and it caught all of it.
Then there’s Penix himself. He averaged 20.6 points across nine starts last season and 16 a game in five road starts, and now he walks into Lambeau on three days of rest without his top cornerback. With no edge left, that’s reason enough to watch this one instead of betting it.
In-Game Bets
- If Atlanta is within a score at halftime. Look at the Atlanta moneyline. Green Bay’s makeshift line has to hold up for four quarters against a pass rush built to get home, and it gets harder the longer the game stays close.
- If Green Bay leads by 14 in the first half. Leave it. Atlanta scored three points last week. Don’t chase a comeback from an offense that hasn’t shown one.
- If another Green Bay lineman goes down. Look at Atlanta and the points on the live number. The Packers are already down two starters up front, and there’s nothing left behind them.
In-Game Parlay
One read, three legs, all built on Bijan Robinson. He ran for 83 and 72 yards in two games without a real quarterback next to him, and caught 11 passes for 99 more. Green Bay is missing defensive tackle Warren Brinson. If Atlanta stays inside the number, it’s because Robinson carried it there. With the edge gone on the spread, this is a lean parlay, no stake.
The angleAtlanta keeps it close by handing Robinson the ball and throwing it to him too.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Bottom Line
Atlanta plus four and a half at is a lean, no stake. We liked this at six and a half. The market moved two points our way and took the edge with it, Atlanta lost its top cornerback, and Penix is making his first start of the year at Lambeau. Watch this one. Don’t bet it.
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