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I’ll take Philadelphia on Monday night. Our numbers liked Chicago, but they were built on Caleb Williams, and Williams probably isn’t playing. I like the Eagles here, but I’m not pounding the table.
The Matchup
- Caleb Williams is out. The Bears ruled him out with a hamstring strain. Tyson Bagent was cleared to full practice Saturday after a concussion, so it’s Bagent or Case Keenum, 38, who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2023. Ben Johnson hasn’t named a starter.
- The Bears have been all or nothing. The Bears put up 59 at Carolina in Week 1, with D’Andre Swift running for 124 yards and three scores. Then they lost 9-3 to Minnesota in the rain after getting to the Vikings’ 1, 5 and 12 and coming away with nothing. Corners Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon are expected to miss this one.
- The Eagles keep winning close. The Eagles are 2-0, by two over Washington and by four at Tennessee on a touchdown with nine seconds left. Jalen Hurts threw two touchdowns and two interceptions in that one, and DeVonta Smith caught ten passes for 117 yards.
- Philadelphia is banged up too. Tight end Dallas Goedert is out for multiple weeks, and guard Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve. Saquon Barkley, who had nine yards on four carries last week, practiced after a stinger. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at Soldier Field.
The Number
Our season projections have Philadelphia at 10 wins and Chicago at 9.1. One point of spread per projected win and three for home field makes it Chicago by 2.1. The board has Philadelphia by three and a half. On paper that’s 5.6 points on Chicago, way over our four-point warning line.
But that number doesn’t know about the quarterback. Our Bears preview made its case on Williams: his sack rate fell from over 10 percent to under 4 last year, and we argued his growth would cover for regression everywhere else. Take him out and the case is gone. This is exactly what our rule on overrides is for. When a starter goes down the same week, in a game inside ten points, I don’t have to trust a number that was built with him on the field.
The market already did the work. This game opened with Chicago favored by a point and a half, and it’s moved five points to Philadelphia. I can’t price a backup quarterback any better than the books can, so the pick flips to the Eagles. It’s a lean at confidence one: I like the side, but the edge is thin.
It stays small for a reason. Our Eagles preview had them under 10.5 wins because they won 11 last year on scoring that was worth 10, with help from turnovers and a new offensive coordinator coming in. Two one-score wins over Washington and Tennessee fit that picture. This isn’t a team I’d lay points with on its own merits.
In-Game Bets
- If Chicago’s backup goes three and out on its first two drives. Look at Philadelphia on the live number. That’s the whole case playing out.
- If Bagent starts and moves the ball early. Leave it. He’s the better of the two backups, and the market already priced some of that in when the line came back a point.
- If the Bears lead at halftime. Do nothing. A defense that gave up nine points to Minnesota can hold a lead, and a lean isn’t worth chasing.
Bottom Line
Take Philadelphia minus the points at . Lean. Our numbers liked Chicago with Williams. Without him, the market has moved five points, and I’m not going to argue with it using a number that doesn’t know he’s hurt. Check the Bears’ inactives before kickoff.
Same-Game Parlay
I like the Eagles to cover against a Bears team that’s likely down to its third quarterback, and I think Jalen Hurts is the reason. If Philly wins by five or more, Hurts is probably doing it with his arm and his legs, picking up yards on the ground and clearing his passing number. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleThe Eagles cover behind Hurts doing it all against a Bears team likely starting its third quarterback.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted September 25; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
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