College Football Week 4 Picks: Every Game, Every Bet, September 26, 2026

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70 college games on Friday and Saturday, and a side on every one of them. Six get a full write-up. The method is the same in every row: the current college ratings, updated after Week 3, two and a half points for the home team, and the gap between that projection and the number on the board. A gap of two points or more is a disagreement. Under two is a lean. Over four is a warning, because last weekend our six biggest disagreements went 0-6. No totals, no props.

The Whole Board

Featured Picks

Clemson at California (Friday)

The ratings make this Clemson by 3.8 and the board asks a point and a half. The line hasn’t moved since Sunday, and the Clemson defense is the best group on the field. Half play. Take Clemson −1.5 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Texas at Tennessee

The ratings make this Texas by 1.4 and the board asks four and a half. The line has moved from seven over the summer toward the Vols, and it’s the best spot on the card. Half play. Take Tennessee +4.5 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Texas A&M at LSU

The ratings make this LSU by 4.5 and the board asks nine and a half. The line jumped after A&M lost to Kentucky, more than the ratings moved, and it moved another point against us Thursday night. That puts the gap over our warning line. Lean, no stake. Take Texas A&M +9.5 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Oregon at USC

The ratings make this Oregon by 0.3 and the board asks three. The gap is on USC, but the line has moved a point and a half toward Oregon since Sunday. Light play. Take USC +3 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Iowa at Michigan

The ratings make this Michigan by 0.3 and the board asks five and a half. That’s over our warning line, and the line has moved toward Michigan. Lean, no stake. Iowa +5.5 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Ole Miss at Florida

The ratings make this Florida by 4.7 and the board asks three and a half. The line moved two points toward Florida this week and took most of the value with it. Lean, no stake. Florida −3.5 at Kicked off Full breakdown →

Every Other Game

One sentence each, in kickoff order. 16 of these carry a gap over our four-point warning line. Those rows have a side because the board is complete, not because I like them.

• Army at Temple: the ratings make it Army by 4.2, and the board says Army by 3. Take Army −3. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Navy at UAB: the ratings make it Navy by 12.2, and the board says Navy by 7. Take Navy −7. That’s 5.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Howard at Rutgers: Howard is an FCS team with no rating, so Rutgers is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Rutgers −41.5.
• Northwestern at Indiana: the ratings make it Indiana by 20.6, and the board says Indiana by 21. Take Northwestern +21. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Illinois at Ohio State: the ratings make it Ohio State by 21.1, and the board says Ohio State by 26.5. Take Illinois +26.5. That’s 5.4 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Sam Houston at Texas Tech: the ratings make it Texas Tech by 37.3, and the board says Texas Tech by 34.5. Take Texas Tech −34.5. A 2.8-point disagreement.
• Wake Forest at Louisville: the ratings make it Louisville by 12.2, and the board says Louisville by 12.5. Take Wake Forest +12.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Colorado at Baylor: the ratings make it Baylor by 10.5, and the board says Baylor by 10. Take Baylor −10. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Bucknell at Pittsburgh: Bucknell is an FCS team with no rating, so Pittsburgh is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Pittsburgh −52.5.
• Virginia Tech at Boston College: the ratings make it Virginia Tech by 14.8, and the board says Virginia Tech by 14. Take Virginia Tech −14. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• San Diego State at Toledo: the ratings make it San Diego State by 0.4, and the board says Toledo by 3. Take San Diego State +3. A 3.4-point disagreement.
• Colorado State at UTSA: the ratings make it UTSA by 7.7, and the board says UTSA by 13.5. Take Colorado State +13.5. That’s 5.8 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• UNLV at Akron: the ratings make it UNLV by 15, and the board says UNLV by 13.5. Take UNLV −13.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Ball State at Kent State: the ratings make it Kent State by 2, and the board says Kent State by 3.5. Take Ball State +3.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• South Alabama at Kentucky: the ratings make it Kentucky by 21.1, and the board says Kentucky by 20.5. Take Kentucky −20.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan: Lindenwood is an FCS team with no rating, so Eastern Michigan is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Eastern Michigan −25.5.
• UCLA at Maryland: the ratings make it Maryland by 1.4, and the board says UCLA by 1.5. Take Maryland +1.5. A 2.9-point disagreement.
• Notre Dame at Purdue: the ratings make it Notre Dame by 26.3, and the board says Notre Dame by 27.5. Take Purdue +27.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Northern Illinois at Georgia State: the ratings make it Georgia State by 2.6, and the board says Georgia State by 10.5. Take Northern Illinois +10.5. That’s 7.9 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Central Arkansas at Florida State: Central Arkansas is an FCS team with no rating, so Florida State is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Florida State −44.5.
• Hawaii at Wyoming: the ratings make it Hawaii by 5.4, and the board says Hawaii by 3. Take Hawaii −3. A 2.4-point disagreement.
• Oklahoma at Georgia: the ratings make it Georgia by 13.1, and the board says Georgia by 14. Take Oklahoma +14. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Utah at Iowa State: the ratings make it Utah by 8.7, and the board says Utah by 8.5. Take Utah −8.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• TCU at UCF: the ratings make it TCU by 3.2, and the board says TCU by 3. Take TCU −3. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• William & Mary at Duke: William & Mary is an FCS team with no rating, so Duke is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Duke −43.5.
• Boise State at Western Michigan: the ratings make it Boise State by 7, and the board says Boise State by 7. Take Boise State −7. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• UConn at Miami (OH): the ratings make it Miami (OH) by 1.7, and the board says Miami (OH) by 3.5. Take UConn +3.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• New Mexico at New Mexico State: the ratings make it New Mexico by 18, and the board says New Mexico by 11.5. Take New Mexico −11.5. That’s 6.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Robert Morris at Buffalo: Robert Morris is an FCS team with no rating, so Buffalo is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Buffalo −28.5.
• Stonehill at Ohio: Stonehill is an FCS team with no rating, so Ohio is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Ohio −34.5.
• Gardner-Webb at Marshall: Gardner-Webb is an FCS team with no rating, so Marshall is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Marshall −23.5.
• Houston at Georgia Southern: the ratings make it Houston by 16, and the board says Houston by 18.5. Take Georgia Southern +18.5. A 2.5-point disagreement.
• NC Central at East Carolina: NC Central is an FCS team with no rating, so East Carolina is the pick as the priced favorite. Take East Carolina −34.5.
• Vanderbilt at Auburn: the ratings make it Auburn by 4.4, and the board says Auburn by 9.5. Take Vanderbilt +9.5. That’s 5.1 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Wisconsin at Penn State: the ratings make it Penn State by 16.5, and the board says Penn State by 10. Take Penn State −10. That’s 6.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Nebraska at Michigan State: the ratings make it Nebraska by 9.7, and the board says Nebraska by 5.5. Take Nebraska −5.5. That’s 4.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• South Florida at Bowling Green: the ratings make it South Florida by 21.4, and the board says South Florida by 17.5. Take South Florida −17.5. A 3.9-point disagreement.
• Delaware at Virginia: the ratings make it Virginia by 21.1, and the board says Virginia by 19.5. Take Virginia −19.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Incarnate Word at Texas State: Incarnate Word is an FCS team with no rating, so Texas State is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Texas State −29.5.
• LIU at FIU: LIU is an FCS team with no rating, so FIU is the pick as the priced favorite. Take FIU −35.5.
• James Madison at Old Dominion: the ratings make it James Madison by 10.7, and the board says James Madison by 6. Take James Madison −6. That’s 4.7 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Central Michigan at Miami: the ratings make it Miami by 40.6, and the board says Miami by 41.5. Take Central Michigan +41.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Louisiana at Charlotte: the ratings make it Louisiana by 14.4, and the board says Louisiana by 10. Take Louisiana −10. That’s 4.4 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• South Carolina at Alabama: the ratings make it Alabama by 9, and the board says Alabama by 12.5. Take South Carolina +12.5. A 3.5-point disagreement.
• Kansas State at Cincinnati: the ratings make it Kansas State by 3.9, and the board says Kansas State by 6.5. Take Cincinnati +6.5. A 2.6-point disagreement.
• Oklahoma State at West Virginia: the ratings make it Oklahoma State by 2.4, and the board says West Virginia by 1.5. Take Oklahoma State +1.5. A 3.9-point disagreement.
• Southern Miss at Tulane: the ratings make it Tulane by 16, and the board says Tulane by 18.5. Take Southern Miss +18.5. A 2.5-point disagreement.
• Kennesaw State at Arkansas State: the ratings make it Arkansas State by 5.5, and the board says Arkansas State by 6. Take Kennesaw State +6. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky: Mercyhurst is an FCS team with no rating, so Western Kentucky is the pick as the priced favorite. Take Western Kentucky −38.5.
• Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State: the ratings make it Jacksonville State by 18.2, and the board says Jacksonville State by 7. Take Jacksonville State −7. That’s 11.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Arizona at Washington State: the ratings make it Arizona by 12.9, and the board says Arizona by 10. Take Arizona −10. A 2.9-point disagreement.
• Troy at Utah State: the ratings make it Troy by 0.6, and the board says Utah State by 3. Take Troy +3. A 3.6-point disagreement.
• Houston Christian at North Texas: Houston Christian is an FCS team with no rating, so North Texas is the pick as the priced favorite. Take North Texas −37.5.
• App State at NC State: the ratings make it NC State by 13.8, and the board says NC State by 14. Take App State +14. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Missouri at Mississippi State: the ratings make it Missouri by 0.5, and the board says Mississippi State by 6.5. Take Missouri +6.5. That’s 7 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Tulsa at Arkansas: the ratings make it Arkansas by 3.4, and the board says Arkansas by 7. Take Tulsa +7. A 3.6-point disagreement.
• FAU at UL Monroe: the ratings make it FAU by 18.1, and the board says FAU by 13.5. Take FAU −13.5. That’s 4.6 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Missouri State at SMU: the ratings make it SMU by 31.9, and the board says SMU by 34.5. Take Missouri State +34.5. A 2.6-point disagreement.
• Oregon State at UTEP: the ratings make it Oregon State by 14.7, and the board says Oregon State by 10.5. Take Oregon State −10.5. That’s 4.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• UMass at Sacramento State: the ratings make it Sacramento State by 1.5, and the board says UMass by 6. Take Sacramento State +6. That’s 7.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Rice at Fresno State: the ratings make it Fresno State by 17, and the board says Fresno State by 13.5. Take Fresno State −13.5. A 3.5-point disagreement.
• Georgia Tech at Stanford: the ratings make it Georgia Tech by 9.3, and the board says Georgia Tech by 3.5. Take Georgia Tech −3.5. That’s 5.8 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
• Air Force at Nevada: the ratings make it Air Force by 4.3, and the board says Air Force by 5.5. Take Nevada +5.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
• Minnesota at Washington: the ratings make it Washington by 9.4, and the board says Washington by 9.5. Take Minnesota +9.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.

Bottom Line

Three staked plays this weekend, all in the write-ups. Clemson −1.5 on Friday and Tennessee +4.5 are half plays, and USC +3 is a light play. Texas A&M, Iowa and Florida are leans with no stake. Every other row on this board is a tracked pick with no stake on it, and every one gets graded on the receipts page either way. If I had to pick one, it’s Tennessee.

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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.