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I’ll take New Orleans laying three and a half at home against the unbeaten Raiders. The numbers like the Saints by a little more than the board does. I like them here, but a little is all it is, so it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- The Raiders are 2-0 and it’s not a fluke. The Raiders beat Miami 27-13 at home and then won 26-14 at the Chargers, where Kirk Cousins threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns and Tre Tucker had 119 receiving yards. They’ve given up 27 points in two games.
- Tyler Shough is on fire. The Saints quarterback leads the league with 662 passing yards through two games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s the most by a Saints quarterback through two games since Drew Brees in 2009. New Orleans came back from 21-0 down at Detroit before losing 31-30 in overtime on a failed two-point try, then went to Baltimore as an eight-and-a-half-point underdog and won 24-17.
- Brock Bowers is back. The Raiders tight end was limited in his first practice of the season after missing the first two games, and he’s expected to play. Safety Treydan Stukes is in the concussion protocol. For the Saints, corner Martin Emerson Jr. missed practice with a shoulder injury, and Travis Etienne Jr. and Chase Young were limited.
- Klint Kubiak knows this building. The Raiders head coach was the Saints’ offensive coordinator in 2024, and his passing game coordinator, Joe Woods, ran the Saints’ defense in 2023 and 2024. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET at the Superdome, the first of three straight home games for New Orleans.
The Number
Using the adjusted projections from our previews, the Saints come in at 6.6 wins and the Raiders at 5.4. One point per projected win and three for home field makes it New Orleans by 4.2. The board says three and a half. That’s 0.7 points on the Saints, under our two-point line. Anything under two is a lean.
The line has moved half a point toward New Orleans. It opened at three and it’s three and a half now, and the Saints’ moneyline has grown from about minus 166 to minus 185. That’s money coming in on our side, but it also means we’re laying more for the same team.
Our previews were skeptical of both teams, which is part of why this is close. We had the Raiders under 5.5 wins because their line gave up 64 sacks last year and their run game was the worst in the league. We had the Saints over 7.5 because Shough was a real upgrade and the schedule is soft. Two weeks in, the Raiders line has held up better than we expected, and Shough has been everything we thought. That pulls in opposite directions. The pick is New Orleans, as a lean at confidence two.
In-Game Bets
- If the Saints lead at halftime. Do nothing. It’s a lean, and a Raiders defense that’s allowed 27 points in two full games doesn’t usually fold in the second half.
- If Cousins is sacked three times in the first half. Look at New Orleans on the live number. That’s the Raiders line problem from last year showing up again.
- If Bowers is inactive. Look at the Saints before kickoff. He’s the Raiders’ best receiving weapon, and they’ve won twice without him, but not against an offense like this one.
Bottom Line
Take New Orleans minus three and a half at . Lean. The numbers like the Saints at home by about four, and the line has moved half a point to three and a half. The gap is under our two-point line, and the Raiders have been better than we thought, so it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all at FanDuel. If the Saints cover, it’s usually because Shough is moving the ball through the middle and the Raiders are throwing late to catch up. Juwan Johnson is Shough’s safety valve over the middle, and Cousins throwing from behind pushes his yardage up. Every leg needs the same afternoon, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleThe Saints cover by moving the ball through the middle, and the Raiders throw late trying to catch up.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted September 24; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
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