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I’ll take the Colts and the point and a half at home. Houston is without its best receiver and half its line missed practice, and the numbers like Indianapolis by three. I like the Colts here, but I’m not pounding the table, because the gap is bigger than I trust.
The Matchup
- Houston is 0-2 and can’t finish drives. The Texans lost 36-31 to Buffalo and then 20-6 to Cincinnati, when C.J. Stroud threw 55 passes for 353 yards and no touchdowns. Houston ran for 18 yards that day and went 0 for 4 in the red zone.
- The Texans are hurt where it matters. Nico Collins (hamstring) has been ruled out. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, right guard Ed Ingram and right tackle Trent Brown all missed both days. Tank Dell is out, and linebacker Henry To’oto’o is on injured reserve.
- Indy is 0-2 too, but it played Kansas City to overtime. The Colts lost 41-23 at home to Baltimore, then fell 33-30 in overtime at Kansas City, where Jonathan Taylor ran for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor was a full participant Thursday.
- The Colts defense is the problem. Indianapolis is giving up more than 500 yards a game, the worst mark in the league, and receiver Alec Pierce is on injured reserve. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on CBS.
The Number
Using the adjusted projections from our previews, the Colts come in at 9.7 wins and Houston at 9.5. Our Houston preview took the Texans down about two wins from last year because a plus-17 turnover margin doesn’t repeat. One point per projected win and three for home field makes it Indianapolis by 3.2. The board has Houston by a point and a half. That’s 4.7 points on the Colts, over our four-point warning line.
The line is moving our way. It opened at Houston by two and a half and it’s down to one and a half, and most of the bets are on Indianapolis. That’s the market reading the same injury report we are. Stroud is 5-1 in his career against the Colts, and that’s part of why the line hasn’t moved more.
Our Colts preview liked them to beat 7.5 wins on the strength of last year’s plus-54 point differential, and it expected Daniel Jones’ comeback from his Achilles injury to make for a slow start. That’s what’s happened so far: two losses, one of them in overtime at Kansas City. The Colts have lost nine straight going back to last season, and at some point the points they’ve been scoring start to count.
A gap over four is a warning in our system, not a reason to bet more. Last weekend our biggest disagreements with the board all lost. But this one has the market moving toward us and the other team’s best receiver out and two starting linemen in doubt, so the side is clear. It’s Indianapolis, as a lean at confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If the Colts lead at halftime. Look at the Indianapolis moneyline. Houston’s offense couldn’t score with him last week.
- If Houston scores touchdowns on its first two drives. Leave it. That’s the Colts defense being what its numbers say, and no live price fixes that.
- If Taylor has 60 yards by halftime. Do nothing. You already have the side you want, and the plan is working.
Bottom Line
Take the Colts plus one and a half at . Lean. The numbers like Indianapolis by three, the line has moved a point our way, and Houston is missing its best receiver and two linemen. The gap is over our warning line, so it stays a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
I think the Colts cover this by leaning on Jonathan Taylor and keeping the ball away from a banged-up Texans offense. If Indy stays inside a point and a half or wins outright, it’s because Taylor is grinding out yards and punching one in. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleThe Colts cover by handing it to Taylor and shortening the game against a banged-up Texans offense.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted September 25; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
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