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I’ll take the Guardians at plus money in Game 1, and this is about as thin as a lean gets. Our numbers and the price almost agree. They give Cleveland a hair more than the market does, and like every baseball pick here until our numbers build a track record, it’s a lean at confidence one.
The Matchup
Cleveland got here the hard way. The Guardians lost the first two games of their division series at home, won twice in Chicago, then won Game 5 on Saturday, 2-0, behind Gavin Williams. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in three and has had five days off.
That rest cuts both ways. The Rays’ pitching is lined up, but their hitters haven’t seen a live pitch since Wednesday. Cleveland flew in after an elimination game Saturday night, and the road team won four of the five games in its last series.
First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Monday in Tampa Bay.
The Pitching
Tampa Bay starts Drew Rasmussen, and he’s been excellent. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 174 strikeouts and a 0.91 WHIP in 172 innings, then threw eight scoreless innings with ten strikeouts against the Yankees in his only start this October. He has allowed one earned run or none in each of his last four starts.
Cleveland goes with Foster Griffin, and his season comes in two halves. He was an All-Star in Washington, 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA, before the Guardians traded for him in August. Since the trade he’s 3-3 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. His last regular-season month was uneven, from eight earned runs in two and a third innings in Baltimore to one run over six in Boston. He pitched two and two thirds innings of relief in Game 3 against Chicago and struck out seven.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. They make Tampa Bay about a 60% favorite. The price, with the books’ margin taken out, says about 61%. That’s a gap of well under one point, the smallest edge we’ve posted this postseason.
There’s a reason to discount even that. Our numbers use Griffin’s full season, and most of his good work came for another team. If you trust his Cleveland numbers more, the edge is gone. I still lean the Guardians because a team that just won three straight elimination games is getting a long price, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone who passes.
Bottom Line
Take the Guardians on the moneyline at . Lean. Our numbers and the market are within a point of each other, so this is a small position on a long price. Rasmussen is the best pitcher in this game, and that’s why it’s a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
If the Guardians win Game 1, it’s most likely a low-scoring game where Cleveland steals one against Rasmussen. Both legs need the same night, so this is one position, not two bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleCleveland steals a low-scoring Game 1 on the road.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Monday afternoon; confirm them before you build the ticket.
Best Props for This Game
We’ll add verified props, each with a trend, a matchup and a real price, if the books post them before first pitch. Player props not available in all states.
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