Fourteen games between Sunday morning in London and Monday night, a side on every one of them, and a write-up for every game. Every pick on this board is a lean. The method is our season projections: one point of spread for every projected win, three points for the home team, and none in London. This week we started reading the gap at half strength, because a preseason number knows less in October than it thinks it does. A gap over four points at half strength is a warning. No totals.
Thursday Night
Buccaneers at Cowboys: we leaned Tampa Bay plus eight and a half with a rookie quarterback, and the Bucs won outright, 24-16. The lean hits and it’s graded on the receipts page.
The Whole Board
| Kickoff | Matchup | Line | Our pick | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 9:30 AM ET | Philadelphia vs Jacksonville (London) | Jacksonville −7.5 | Philadelphia +7.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Chicago at Green Bay | Green Bay +1.5 | Green Bay +1.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Cincinnati at Miami | Miami +6.5 | Miami +6.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Las Vegas at New England | New England −3.5 | New England −3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Minnesota at New Orleans | New Orleans +2.5 | New Orleans +2.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Cleveland at New York Jets | New York Jets −2.5 | New York Jets −2.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Indianapolis at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh −2.5 | Indianapolis +2.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Houston at Tennessee | Tennessee +7.5 | Tennessee +7.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | New York Giants at Washington | Washington −3.5 | New York Giants +3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:05 PM ET | Denver at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:25 PM ET | Detroit at Arizona | Arizona +5.5 | Arizona +5.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:25 PM ET | San Francisco at Seattle | Seattle −3 | Seattle −3 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 8:20 PM ET | Baltimore at Atlanta | Atlanta −3.5 | Atlanta −3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| MON 8:15 PM ET | Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams −3.5 | Los Angeles Rams −3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
Lines are as of Friday afternoon; the price column updates live.
Every Game
One sentence each, in kickoff order, with a link to the full write-up.
- Philadelphia vs Jacksonville: our number says Jacksonville by 1.8 and the board says Jacksonville by 7.5. Take Philadelphia +7.5. At half strength that’s 2.8 points, a lean.
- Chicago at Green Bay: our number says Green Bay by 3.2 and the board says Chicago by 1.5. Take Green Bay +1.5. At half strength that’s 2.4 points, a lean.
- Cincinnati at Miami: our number says Miami by 2.7 and the board says Cincinnati by 6.5. Take Miami +6.5. At half strength that’s 4.6 points, past our four-point warning line, so it’s a lean with a flag on it.
- Las Vegas at New England: our number says New England by 8.6 and the board says New England by 3.5. Take New England −3.5. At half strength that’s 2.6 points, a lean.
- Minnesota at New Orleans: our number says New Orleans by 0.1 and the board says Minnesota by 2.5. Take New Orleans +2.5. At half strength that’s 1.3 points, a lean.
- Cleveland at New York Jets: our number says the Jets by 4.5 and the board says the Jets by 2.5. Take New York Jets −2.5. At half strength that’s 1 point, a lean.
- Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: our number says Pittsburgh by 1.3 and the board says Pittsburgh by 2.5. Take Indianapolis +2.5. At half strength that’s 0.6 points, a lean.
- Houston at Tennessee: our number says Houston by 2.7 and the board says Houston by 7.5. Take Tennessee +7.5. At half strength that’s 2.4 points, a lean.
- New York Giants at Washington: our number says Washington by 2.1 and the board says Washington by 3.5. Take New York Giants +3.5. At half strength that’s 0.7 points, a lean.
- Denver at Los Angeles Chargers: our number says the Chargers by 1.3 and the board says Denver by 3.5. Take Los Angeles Chargers +3.5. At half strength that’s 2.4 points, a lean.
- Detroit at Arizona: our number says Detroit by 1.6 and the board says Detroit by 5.5. Take Arizona +5.5. At half strength that’s 2 points, a lean.
- San Francisco at Seattle: our number says Seattle by 5.9 and the board says Seattle by 3. Take Seattle −3. At half strength that’s 1.5 points, a lean.
- Baltimore at Atlanta: our number says Atlanta by 0.6 and the board says Atlanta by 3.5. Take Atlanta −3.5. Lamar Jackson is out, so our injury rule overrides a number built on him. A lean on Atlanta.
- Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams: our number says the Rams by 4.1 and the board says the Rams by 3.5. Take Los Angeles Rams −3.5. At half strength that’s 0.3 points, a lean.
Bottom Line
Fourteen leans, no stakes. The biggest gap on the board is Miami plus six and a half, and it carries a warning flag: the Dolphins are 0-4 and the market is all over Cincinnati. Two picks lean on injuries more than numbers: Green Bay with Chicago starting its backup, and Atlanta with Lamar Jackson out. Every pick gets graded on the receipts page either way. If I had to pick one, it’s Green Bay at home against Tyson Bagent.
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