Thirteen games from Sunday morning in London to Monday night, a pick on every one, and a full write-up for each. This is the last week our preseason numbers get the Featured tag: one point of spread for every win last season’s scoring was worth, plus a point and a half for the home team, and none in London. In testing, those early-season sides covered about 56% of the time against closing lines. After this week they go back to being Game Picks. When a starting quarterback is out in a close game, our injury rule overrides the number, and that pick becomes a Game Pick. Every pick lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Thursday Night
Seahawks at Broncos: we took Denver plus two and a half, and the Broncos won it outright, 17-14. The Featured pick cashed, and it’s graded on the receipts page.
The Whole Board
| Kickoff | Matchup | Line | Our pick | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 9:30 AM ET | Houston vs Jacksonville (London) | Jacksonville −2.5 | Houston +2.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Chicago at Atlanta | Chicago −1.5 | Atlanta +1.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore at Cleveland | Baltimore −3 | Cleveland +3 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Carolina at Philadelphia | Carolina −3.5 | Carolina −3.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Tennessee at Indianapolis | Indianapolis −7 | Indianapolis −7 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | New York Jets at New England | New England −7.5 | New England −7.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans at New York Giants | New Orleans −1.5 | New York Giants +1.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 1:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh −2.5 | Pittsburgh −2.5 · Under 39.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:05 PM ET | Arizona at Los Angeles Rams | Rams −12.5 | Arizona +12.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:25 PM ET | Buffalo at Las Vegas | Buffalo −5.5 | Buffalo −5.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 4:25 PM ET | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City | Kansas City −7.5 | Chargers +7.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| SUN 8:20 PM ET | Dallas at Green Bay | Green Bay −1.5 | Green Bay −1.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
| MON 8:15 PM ET | Washington at San Francisco | San Francisco −7.5 | Washington +7.5 | Kicked off | Breakdown → |
Lines are as of Friday morning; the price column updates live.
The Wind
One game clears our 15 mph line: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay, with the NWS hourly forecast at 17 mph from the northeast at kickoff. The total hasn’t dropped at the books on the card, so the Under 39.5 is a Featured pick, playable to 38.5. Kansas City (12 mph), San Francisco (13 mph) and Green Bay (10 mph) are breezy but under the line. We recheck Saturday at 8 PM ET and three hours before kickoff; if Tampa’s forecast drops below 15, the Under is pulled.
Every Game
One line each, in kickoff order, with a link to the full write-up, the parlay and the props.
- Houston vs Jacksonville (London) (Featured): our number has these two even on a neutral field (Jacksonville by 0.3) and the board says Jacksonville by 2.5. Take Houston +2.5.
- Chicago at Atlanta (Featured): our number says Chicago by 0.4 and the board says Chicago by 1.5. Take Atlanta +1.5.
- Baltimore at Cleveland (Featured): our number says Baltimore by 2.1 and the board says Baltimore by 3. Take Cleveland +3. Lamar Jackson is out.
- Carolina at Philadelphia (Game Pick): our number says Philadelphia by 5, but it was built with Jalen Hurts, and he is out. Our injury rule overrides the number, so take Carolina −3.5 as a Game Pick.
- Tennessee at Indianapolis (Featured): our number says Indianapolis by 7.4 and the board says 7. Take Indianapolis −7, the thinnest gap on the board.
- New York Jets at New England (Featured): our number says New England by 10.1 and the board says 7.5. Take New England −7.5.
- New Orleans at New York Giants (Featured): our number says the Giants by 2.3 and the board says New Orleans by 1.5. Take the Giants +1.5.
- Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (Game Pick + Featured Under): wind is forecast at 17 mph sustained, so the Under 39.5 is a Featured wind pick, playable to 38.5. On the side, Baker Mayfield is out and our injury rule overrides the number, so Pittsburgh −2.5 is a Game Pick.
- Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (Featured): our number says the Rams by 8.4 and the board says 12.5. Take Arizona +12.5.
- Buffalo at Las Vegas (Featured): our number says Buffalo by 6.3 and the board says 5.5. Take Buffalo −5.5.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (Featured): our number says Kansas City by 1.7 and the board says 7.5. Take the Chargers +7.5, the biggest gap on the board.
- Dallas at Green Bay (Featured): our number says Green Bay by 3.1 and the board says 1.5. Take Green Bay −1.5.
- Washington at San Francisco (Featured): our number says San Francisco by 5.4 and the board says 7.5. Take Washington +7.5.
Bottom Line
Eleven Featured sides, a Featured wind Under, and two Game Picks. The biggest gap is the Chargers plus seven and a half at Arrowhead: 0-5, but every loss by 12 or fewer. The injury rule moved two sides, Carolina with Hurts out and Pittsburgh with Mayfield out. If I had to pick one, it’s the Under in Tampa.
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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.
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