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Four and a half points for a team that just put up 31 and won in overtime. I’ll take the points but I’m not shouting about it.
The Matchup
- This is a price bet, not a Bills fade. Our Buffalo preview has the Bills clearing ten and a half wins, and Buffalo is our Super Bowl ticket at +1000. Our Detroit preview has the Lions falling short of ten and a half. Both teams scored 481 points last season. Buffalo allowed 48 fewer.
- Week 1 told two different stories. Josh Allen threw for 334 yards and ran in two touchdowns as Buffalo won 36-31 in Houston without a turnover. Detroit led New Orleans 21-0 in the third quarter, then gave up 469 yards and needed overtime to win 31-30 at home.
- Detroit’s offensive line is the story of the week. Center Cade Mays is on injured reserve. Dan Campbell has said left guard Christian Mahogany will be hard to get ready, and he called rookie right tackle Blake Miller’s knee a little bit of a concern. Ben Bartch and Larry Borom are next up, against the Buffalo front whose Greg Rousseau forced the fumble that ended Sunday’s game.
- Buffalo’s report is light. Linebacker Terrel Bernard was limited early in the week with a calf injury. No starter on the Bills offense is listed. Both teams are on a short week, and this is the first regular season game in Buffalo’s new stadium.
The Number
Our season numbers have Buffalo at eleven wins and Detroit at ten. One win of separation is worth about half a point in a single game and home field is worth about two more, so this projects as Buffalo by roughly two and a half. The board says four and a half. On our numbers that is about two points in Detroit’s favour, well short of the four point gap where we stop trusting a projection at all.
The market disagrees. Last Thursday this was Buffalo by three. It reached three and a half over the weekend and jumped to four and a half late Monday morning, with the Detroit moneyline drifting from around +160 to around +200. That is a point and a half toward Buffalo in a week, straight through three, the most common winning margin in the league. When our numbers and the market disagree, the market is usually right. It has also seen something our season numbers cannot: a Detroit line that could start as many as three backups on Thursday.
So be clear about what this bet is. We are taking the points because four and a half is a lot, not because we think Detroit wins. A Buffalo win by a field goal or by four still pays, and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards on Sunday, which is how an underdog keeps a game inside a score. Confidence two, a half play.
In-Game Bets
- If Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany are both inactive. Pass before kickoff. Three backups up front against this pass rush is more than a point and a half of extra cushion can cover.
- If Jared Goff is sacked twice on Detroit’s first two drives. The protection problem has arrived early. Get out.
- If Gibbs has ten carries at halftime and Detroit is within a score. Hold. That is the Week 1 recipe, when Detroit kept the ball for almost 37 minutes, and it keeps Josh Allen on the sideline.
Bottom Line
Take Detroit and the four and a half at , and keep it small. Buffalo is the better team and we have said so all summer. The market moved a point and a half against us for real reasons. We are here for the size of the number and nothing more. Confidence two, a half play.
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